920
FXUS61 KILN 111914
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
314 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flash flood risk has increased in some areas for tonight/early
Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather and flash flooding are possible with thunderstorms
through early this evening.

2) Additional thunderstorms will continue to pose a flash flood risk
tonight through Wednesday night.

3) Additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are
possible through the end of the week with drier weather possible this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest round of thunderstorms has begun affecting the area early
this afternoon. Based on latest trends, areas near and south of I-70
look to see the greatest risk for severe weather with this latest
round. The environment continues to be supportive of
damaging/destructive wind gusts, where localized gusts could reach
70 to 80 mph leading to more significant local damage compared to 60
mph wind gusts. In addition, there is the risk for isolated tornadoes
within line segments.

Storm motion will tend to be to the southeast, limiting training, however
due to high rainfall rates localized flash flooding will be possible
particularly in any more vulnerable areas that have received a lot
of rainfall within the past 24 hours, such as portions of
central/east central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Initial convection should move through the area by early this
evening, however any reprieve may be brief as plenty of high
resolution guidance suggests additional storms moving into the area
or developing over the area. The most likely area for this to occur
appears to be over southeast Indiana/southwest Ohio/northern Kentucky
however confidence in exact placement of new nocturnal convection is
rather low and it is possible this could be placed further north.

Wherever the new convection orients itself will have a low end severe
risk for damaging winds. A more significant flash flood risk may
emerge especially if activity aligns northwest to southeast and
repetitively moves across the same area. At this time, a Flood Watch
remains across the entire area through tonight/early Wednesday
morning.

It`s unclear whether the balance of Wednesday may see a
another lull in convection, or if another round may impact at least
part of the area. If another round does occur, it could be late in
the day or Wednesday night, with continued risks for flash flooding
and at least a low end severe risk for damaging wind. Later updates
will have to refine and resolve timing/placement details of any late
Wednesday/Wednesday night convection.


KEY MESSAGE 3)
The active pattern may continue through the end of the week, but
details on individual disturbances and timing of hazardous weather
impacts are uncertain. Either way, we continue with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Guidance does suggest the
potential for drying to occur this weekend, and while we can`t
complelty rule out a thunderstorm, the trend should be down for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The latest round of storms will impact all terminals this afternoon.
Have allowed for a 2-4 hour TEMPO group for thunderstorms - may have
to amend for higher wind gusts that could be aoa 40 to 50 kt as
thunderstorms approach. A reprieve may be brief, as a lot of
guidance suggests another round of evening/overnight thunderstorms.
Confidence in location and timing are both low, so only have a PROB30
at this time. But as details become more clear, we will be able to
add more details to aviation forecasts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPP
AVIATION...BPP