303
FXUS61 KILN 151835
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
235 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley through mid week, bringing occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to rotate
slowly east across our area through the rest of this afternoon and
into this evening in association with a weak upper level trough and
surface wave that is moving through the upper Ohio Valley. These will
primarily affect areas to the southeast of I-71. With PWs up around
2 inches across our southeast, locally heavy downpours will be
possible. The best chance for this and any flooding concerns look to
be across the lower Scioto Valley, near the center of the broader
circulation as this is where the storms will have the slowest
motion/best chance for training. Otherwise, the activity should
decrease in coverage and intensity overnight as we lose the diurnal
component and the short wave continues to move off to our east. Lows
tonight will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough will move slowly out of the Mid Mississippi
Valley Monday and into the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. Some mid
level energy ejecting northeast out of this will combine with some
afternoon instability through the day on Monday to result in a
developing chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the lower 80s.

Pcpn chances will continue into early Monday evening but will likely
begin to decrease somewhat in coverage and intensity as we lose the
daytime heating. However, additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms will spread back in from the southwest later Monday
night ahead of the mid level trough. Lows Monday night will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid level shortwave continues to move through the larger flow at
the start of the extended period. Right now, it appears that this
wave will be moving though the CWA on Tuesday, allowing for brief
dry weather for east central IN/ west central OH/ west KY. However,
there still may be enough forcing on the eastern side of this wave
to spark showers and thunderstorms in central OH/KY on east Tuesday
afternoon. Guidance shows a subtle enhancement in wind speeds on the
eastern side of the shortwave- not quite a jet streak- but perhaps
enough to allow a little more organization to storms. This appears
to be focused closer to the OH/WV border, but may be something to
watch should it shift farther west. High moisture content means that
Tuesday remains muggy: Tds in the low 70s and Ts in the low 80s and
locally heavy rainfall remains a threat with any
showers/storms. Overnight lows only fall to the low 70s.

By Wednesday, yet another shortwave to our west will be organizing
and moving into the Ohio Valley. This wave will be the driver for an
additional influx of moisture and warmth into the region. Wednesday
should be the warmest day of the week, with feels-like temps
creeping into the 90s in spots as we enter into the open-warm sector
of the surface low. Showers and thunderstorms will fire off ahead of
the cold front as it is dragged through, though timing on this
remains a bit ambiguous. Both ECMWF and GFS ensembles have slowed
things down a tad, however, placement of the low over the Great
Lakes varies. Either way, looks like trends are indicating cold
frontal passage either late Wednesday night or possibly into
Thursday. Depending on timing and diurnal factors, this may inhibit
severe potential for our area and keep severe west of us on
Wednesday and east of us on Thursday. We`ll see.

In the post- frontal regime sometime on Thursday, we should briefly
dry out and maybe even see some sunshine. However, the airmass
behind this "cold" front isn`t exactly cold. Ts and Tds on Thursday
and Friday are maybe only 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. In fact,
large scale ridging looks to be setting up as we head toward the
weekend, bringing even hotter conditions to the region, though
potentially drier.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to shift
slowly east across the area this afternoon into this evening as a
weak low pressure system moves through the upper Ohio Valley. The
I-71 TAF sites will be on the northwest fringe of the better chances
of pcpn, so will generally just allow for a few hour period of
PROB30 through the afternoon at those TAF sites. Lingering low level
moisture will likely lead to MVFR to IFR cigs and possibly some MVFR
vsbys developing again later tonight into early Monday morning. Cigs
will lift back into MVFR and then VFR toward the end of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through Thursday with periods of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL