920
FXUS61 KILN 021030
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
630 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A slow moving cold front will drop south through the area today
leading to rain, clouds and cooler temperatures.


2) Expect generally dry conditions along with temperatures below
normal through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)

Northern part of a strong mid level ridge centered over the
southeast U.S. is suppressed as westerlies drop south thru the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This will allow a slow moving cold front
to drop thru ILN/s northwest counties this morning and the remainder
of the area this afternoon. This front is an ana front with showers
along and behind the frontal boundary. Instability is very marginal
with forecast soundings showing a very skinny cape profile. As the
front slips into the area this morning expect mainly showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms possible over the south this afternoon.

Clouds, rain, and northwest to north winds at 10-15 mph in the post
frontal environment will make for a cool day. Expect little diurnal
rise with temperatures in the 60s after the frontal passage.


Key Message 2)

In the wake of today`s front surface high pressure will build across
the Great Lakes this weekend. This will offer dry conditions and
temperatures around 5 degrees below normal Saturday. A brief
moderation to near normal temperatures on Sunday will be followed by
cooler air as Canadian high pressure builds southeast into the
region early next week. High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s
Monday and Tuesday - around 7 to 10 degrees below normal. Lows look
to be around 10 degrees below normal with the potential for patchy
frost Monday night and Tuesday night. Readings moderate to near or
slightly above normal for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving front will slip into the area by sunrise and then south
of the TAF/s by afternoon. Rain develops behind the front with
ceilings quickly dropping thru MVFR to IFR. Precipitation ends from
northwest to southeast this afternoon with ceilings bumping up to
MVFR and VFR late in the day into early evening.

Southwest winds 8-10 kts shifts to northwest and then north behind
the front around 10-12kt with some gusts up to 18 kts.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR