Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
942 FXUS61 KILN 141013 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 613 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet and dry conditions continue through the working week, as surface high pressure remains in control. As we head into the weekend, a deep area of low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley region, bringing gusty winds and rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Patchy overland and river valley fog has developed this morning along with some low level stratus, with the more notable visibility reductions along and north of I-70. As such, have issued a SPS for reduced visibilities to get us through the majority of the rush hour commute. Any early morning fog will burn off shortly after sunrise and we`ll have another mostly sunny day with diurnal cumulus, thanks the broad area of ridging aloft and surface high pressure. High temperatures rise to the mid 70s, with some upper 70s sprinkled in particularly near the Tri-State and OH/IN border. The combination of the high to our west and the deep low off of New England will continue northeasterly flow across our region and winds will be around 10 MPH throughout the daytime hours. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... Tuesday night remains dry, with overnight lows falling again to the low 50s/upper 40s. Guidance is already hinting at some low stratus/ river valley fog development, so this may be something that will need to be added to the grids as confidence increases. Aloft, the large scale ridging over much of the Mid-West will be dampened slightly as a shortwave (associated with the large area of low pressure moving east through Canada) moves through the larger flow. Concurrently with this, at the surface, a dry cold front passes through and temperatures on Wednesday cool slightly, rising to the upper 60s/ low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night with a ridge axis extending southward into the Ohio Valley. The high will then shift slowly east Thursday into Friday. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the end of the work week. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows both nights in the upper 30s to mid 40s. This will result in a potential for some patchy frost development Wednesday night and Thursday night, with the best chance for this across portions of central Ohio. A mid/upper level trough will dig down across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday before shifting east across our region Sunday into Sunday night. This will be accompanied by an associated cold front that will move east across the Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this will lead to decent moisture advection up into our area and a developing chance for showers from the west Saturday afternoon. Widespread showers can be expected Saturday night before tapering off through the day on Sunday. Some weak instabilities may sneak into our area late in the day Saturday so it will be tough to rule out some embedded thunder into Saturday evening. Mid level ridging and drier conditions will then build in from the west through Monday. Ahead of the front, it will be breezy and warm on Saturday with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Behind the front, a cooler airmass will settle into the region for the first part of next week. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 60s with highs on Monday only in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Patchy overland fog has developed throughout the area, with the more notable visibility restrictions along and north of I-70. Fog/ low level stratus will burn off shortly after sunrise and winds pick up to 10 knots out of the northeast. Diurnally driven cu is expected during the afternoon hours, tapering off around sunset. Once again, river valley, and possibly some overland, fog is possible during the overnight hours; overnight winds decrease down to 5 knots or less, out of the north/northeast. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...