Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
356 FXUS61 KILN 291800 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will offer dry weather through the weekend into early next week. A southerly flow on the back side of this retreating high marks an increase in moisture and a return of rain chances Tuesday, increasing as we head into mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Fair weather cumulus clouds continue across much of the area with a corridor of drier air providing sunny skies across the tri-state and the Ohio River. With the drier air in the south, temperatures have also warmed more quickly than for locations across Day and Columbus where clouds lingered. This will remain the case into the late afternoon with low 80s in the south and low to mid 70s across the north. Clouds dissipate this evening with scattered high clouds moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures are cool once again, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Can`t rule out some additional light fog Saturday morning around the area, but widespread issues are not currently expected. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure dominates the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions into Saturday, with another day of below normal temperatures forecast. The lack of widespread clouds in the morning means the temperatures across the area aren`t as diverse as Friday morning. Steady and light northeasterly flow persists throughout the entire day as high pressure sits to the north. Can`t rule out some scattered cumulus during the afternoon, but the coverage will be more limited in comparison to Friday. An air mass behind a shortwave trough moving southward into the region Saturday night will reinforce the dry and stable air moving into the second half of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Sunday, high pressure persists across the Great Lakes, with another day of light northeasterly flow expected across the local area. Mostly sunny skies means temperatures a few degrees warmer than Saturday, but they remain below normal compared to the typical high temperatures expected for early September. Into early next week, the high pressure that provided multiple days of persistent weather finally shifts to the northeast, prompting the expected increase in rainfall chances into midweek. An inverted trough slowly retrogrades westward across Kentucky, with an isolated shower possible Monday evening south of the Ohio River. A better surge of moisture arrives Tuesday and continues into Wednesday, as a shortwave pivots through the Ohio Valley south of a much larger upper level low in central Canada. Depending on the exact timing, there does appear to be a window for a concentrated period of light to moderate rain Tuesday night through Wednesday. Due to some uncertainty in the location of the shortwave trough as it pivots, location details for rainfall amounts are likely to change in future forecasts. At this time, probabilities for rainfall greater than 1.00" are still quite low but are focused across the tri-state area into central and southern Ohio. Western Ohio and eastern Indiana may have similar PoPs at this time, but could ultimately end up on the drier side, depending on how the situation evolves. The potential for the drier solution is due to a wedge of dry air which may be advected in faster from the west, reducing the potential for rainfall across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. The upper level low pressure in Canada drives a stronger cold front through Wednesday night or Thursday with another period of rain being possible. The dry air mass behind this front is quite impressive, with dry conditions likely returning on Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected now that cloud heights/coverage of risen above MVFR thresholds. Light north- northwesterly wind continues into the evening before shifting to north-northeasterly Saturday. Continued mentions for river fog at LUK remains, and can`t be ruled out for ILN. For now, the chances were low enough to keep out of ILN TAF. Scattered cumulus is once again expected Saturday, but with much less coverage. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis