Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
479 FXUS61 KILN 212334 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 734 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood watch expired. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cooler weather will prevail through the week. More showers will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Cooler airmass will continue to settle across the area tonight on a low level northeasterly flow. Patchy drizzle will occur in the cool damp air mass. Mid level short wave will drop southeast from the Upper MS Valley and deepen and close off over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will work to amplify an inverted surface trough along the western slopes of the Appalachians. These features will bring some showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with the greater threat for rain over the eastern counties. The closed low will track off to the east coast thru the end of the week resulting in an extended dry period for the area during the latter part of the week into the weekend. Highs look to moderate closer to normal early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low MVFR to IFR ceilings will occur through much of the TAF period as a cool, damp northeasterly flow persists. There are signals in the guidance for periods of drizzle. Timing this out for each site carries very low confidence. However, when it occurs, visibility will likely drop to IFR and below. Have handled this with a PROB30 due to the patchy nature of the signal. Have continued to delay any significant increase in cloud bases by a few hours Tuesday afternoon. However, there could be periods of improvement tonight based on latest observational trends across west-central Ohio. This will likely be short-lived, so have generally kept the ceilings near or below IFR threshold. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings Tuesday night could continue into Thursday morning. Visibility restrictions are also possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...04