206
FXUS61 KILN 090403
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1203 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system will shift east across the region through
Friday, leading to dry conditions. A weak low pressure system will
drop down across the Great Lakes this weekend. This could lead to a
few showers across mainly central Ohio.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes early this
morning will drift slowly east through this afternoon. Suppose a few
afternoon cu will be possible, but with a dry airmass in place,
expect mostly sunny skies today. Temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The surface high will move off to the east tonight into Friday. With
clear skies and light winds tonight, good radiational cooling will
develop. This will allow for temperatures to fall into the mid to
upper 30s, with some low 30s possible in outlying areas. This will
lead to areas of frost late tonight, especially across our northern
areas.

Some weak return flow will develop through the day on Friday with
temperatures moderating back to near normal. Highs on Friday will be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quick moving shortwave will be pushing into the northern Great
Lakes region by Friday night, though the system will be fairly
moisture starved. Have some low end PoPs along and north of I-70
Friday late night into Saturday afternoon, but overall signal is not
for much QPF. Mainly, we`ll just see some increased cloud cover and
an uptick in southerly return flow, allowing temperatures to return
to seasonal normals.

In fact, on a synoptic level, there is a pretty interesting
meteorological setup that will occur. The shortwave low will get cut
off from the parent flow over the Great Lakes/ northern Ohio Valley
region on Saturday. Meanwhile, a fairly disorganized area of low
pressure will be moving north along the southern Atlantic Coastline.
This area of disturbance will actually merge with the cutoff low
over us, allowing the Atlantic disturbance to deepen substantially
just south of New England while washing out the low over us.

As the low over us gets washed out and pulled east, a very weak
FROPA looks to move through the Ohio Valley sometime late Saturday
into Sunday. Despite its passage, won`t feel much of a sensible
change in Ts or Tds and Sundays highs once again reach the low 70s.

Meanwhile, to our northwest, a robust area of low pressure will be
moving through southern Canada, allowing for continued southerly
flow across our region. This keeps the warming trend in place and
early week temperatures look to rise back above normals, with highs
reaching the mid/upper 70s. Concurrent with the warming trend, we
look to stay dry through at least the remainder of the extended.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will result in mostly clear
conditions through tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...