Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
093 FXUS61 KILN 010953 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 553 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region today offering continued dry weather with temperatures warming closer to normal. Some showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front, with the best threat for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. After the frontal passage, unseasonably cool temperatures and dry weather will return late in the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep a dry northeast low level flow across the region. Expect abundant sunshine with only a few fair weather cumulus and some thin high level clouds. Temperatures look to be slightly warmer with highs from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The few cumulus that develop this afternoon will dissipate with the loss of heating. Lows will be not quite as cool ranging from the lower 50s northeast to the upper 50s southwest. Sprawling surface high will shift slightly east during the period. A weak surface low develops in the mid South in response to a mid level shortwave digging southeast from the Plains into the persistent mean long wave trof base. A surface inverted trough will develop into the area with some moisture return focused along it Tuesday afternoon. Have continued slight chance pops along and south of the Ohio River Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm with highs on Tuesday ranging from near 80 northwest to the lower 80s southeast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday evening, broad troughing will be in place across much of the eastern CONUS, with a sharper trough beginning to develop over Manitoba. At the surface, high pressure will be moving east of the Ohio Valley, with an ill-defined mid-level wave and surface trough moving east across the Tennessee Valley region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will spread some showers into the region during this time frame, with rain most likely generally along and south of Interstate 71. By Wednesday night, the sharper trough over Canada will become a closed low over the northern Great Lakes, with a cold front extending from a surface low southward into the Ohio Valley. This front will move through the ILN CWA some time early Thursday into Thursday afternoon, bringing a much better chance of precipitation, and possibly some thunderstorms as well. Based on frontal timing and poor expected destabilization, chances for strong storms on Thursday appear limited, and perhaps greater off to the east and southeast of the ILN forecast area. While the Thursday cold front will represent the greatest chance of precipitation through the extended forecast period. However, there are signs of a secondary wave and cold front moving through the area Friday night, which could bring some additional light precipitation. The main story beyond the passage of the Thursday cold front will be an anomalously dry and cold air mass, associated with the deep upper low developing to the north of the area. Highs over the weekend are only expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, which will be about 10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain sprawling from the Great Lakes thru New England today. A dry airmass will remain in place across the region with a low level northeast flow. Outside of some brief and patchy river valley fog toward sunrise this morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the day into this evening. Expect only a few fair weather cumulus clouds and some thin high level clouds. The cumulus clouds dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. The very light low level flow looks to veer east to southeast overnight becoming more favorable for river fog restrictions at KLUK. Have MVFR vsby restrictions dropping to IFR late tonight with brief MVFR conditions at KILN. The fog will improve quickly Tuesday morning with a return to VFR conditions. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR