424
FXUS61 KILN 180206
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1006 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through
Thursday, and some strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday.
Drier weather is then expected on Friday and into the weekend, with
heat and humidity building through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
With the exception of light to occasionally moderate rain across
parts of south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky early tonight,
most of the overnight will see just isolated showers and possibly a
storm. Warm lows will be around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The expectations for severe weather potential tomorrow remain
similar to previous forecasts. There were no changes made to the
Storm Prediction Center Day 2 ENH Risk across west-central Ohio &
eastern Indiana along with the Day 1 SLGT & MRGL Risk for the rest of
the area.

The only minor change with the local forecast was to move
up arrival time for thunderstorms a bit closer to the late afternoon
for eastern Indiana and western Ohio. 12Z model guidance suggests the
potential for a southward extending line of convection with the
compact shortwave & pre-frontal trough which will provide an initial
chance for severe weather across the Enhanced threat area and perhaps
as far south of the tri-state. How far south this activity reaches
will determine the arrival time for rest of the local area. Even with
the initial round potentially only impacting northwest portions of
the area, instability is expected to persist into the evening as the
next round of forcing moves into the Ohio Valley. Storm clusters and
broken line segments are expected to move across the area during the
evening hours, decreasing in intensity toward midnight as they move
east. The primary threat remains damaging winds with tornadoes a
possibility within the favorable segments of the thunderstorm line
features. Any hail threat would likely be isolated to when storms
initially develop west of the area and into the northwest portions
of the local area.

Some additional adjustments in timing are possible through the
upcoming forecasts, but the specific threat expectations are likely
to remain fairly close to where they are now.

With the trough still moving into the area Wednesday, the risk for
scattered thunderstorms may persist during the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will cross the area early on Thursday with a secondary
trough later in the day more coincident with the mid-level trough.
This will result in showers and some thunderstorms, manly focused in
the morning.

This will be the last chance of rain for quite some time as the
pattern shifts. A rather stout mid-level high will develop over the
southern Plains and then translate northeast, sprawling across the
mid and upper Ohio Valley as well as the lower Great Lakes from
Sunday through at least Tuesday. 500 mb anomalies are 2 to 2.5 sigma,
peaking on Monday.

So heat and humidity will be building. Highs will rise into the
lower 90s by Sunday with some mid 90s on the following days. Lows
will remain in the lower 70s. The probability of heat indices
reaching heat advisory criteria of 100 will be greatest on Monday,
generally 50 to 70 percent, with probabilities about 20 percent lower
on Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two are possible through this
evening due to lingering modest instability. Later, guidance is
still showing a persistent signal for stratus, so have continued MVFR
to IFR cigs developing in the pre-dawn hours.

Outside of a few isolated showers late Wednesday morning, the main
weather impact on Wednesday appears to be the approach of a sharp
mid- level shortwave late in the day. Latest high-resolution guidance
brings organized convection to our western TAF sites around 23Z.
Will need to continue to monitor future model runs to hone in on the
arrival time. Main threat will be strong wind gusts with the initial
onset of the thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will then be possible through
Wednesday night, with MVFR to IFR conditions late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...