Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
722 FXUS61 KILN 222333 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 733 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend occurs through Saturday with dry conditions in place. On Sunday, a cooler airmass arrives to the Ohio Valley and temperatures will be below average through much of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A surface high remains over the region the rest of today and tonight. Some clearing may occur early this evening before low level moisture increases again overnight. Forecast lows tonight are in the lower to middle 60s areawide. Weak northerly winds persist this afternoon and evening before going light and variable under the high tonight. Some patchy fog is possible late overnight if skies clear enough especially in river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Increasing westerly flow west of the high brings in warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the lower 80s north of I-70 to near 90 south of the Ohio River. By later in the afternoon and into the early evening, a cold front and upper level troughing will approach from the northwest leading to an increase in mid level clouds. The cold front is forecast to progress through the area fairly quickly during the second half of Saturday night. Moisture and forcing is limited so shower chances remain low although a few locations could see some brief light rain with FROPA. If FROPA occurs early enough, a few locations in western Ohio may drop into the upper 50s before sunrise Sunday morning. Everyone else should remain in the 60s ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Sunday morning, a large upper low will be centered near James Bay, with troughing across much of the north-central and northeastern sections of the CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will have just passed through the Ohio Valley, and high pressure will be starting to build in from the west and northwest. This surface high will very slowly move eastward through the extended forecast period, centering itself over the ILN CWA by the middle of the week. The high will bring a period of below-normal temperatures, along with a fairly dry air mass, with precipitable water values forecast to be as low as about a half inch on Wednesday morning. Any chances of precipitation associated with the upper low will likely remain well to the north, leaving a dry forecast through the entire extended period. Winds on Monday and Tuesday will be out of the WNW at 10-15 MPH, with lighter winds at other points of the forecast, especially as the surface high moves into the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet weather regarding terminals for the next 24-30 hours. Cu field attm is quickly eroding but may take an extra hour or two for DAY to fully become SKC. A light wind field overnight will become sw towards noon and increase to 7-10kt. At this same time, some cu will redevelop (possibly earlier but not worth an extra line being sct VFR) as high clouds enter from the northwest. Light wind and clear sky cover had me tank LUK at 1/2sm before daybreak. Dewpoint depressions of zero are noted for several hours before daybreak. Fog may develop earlier, but MVFR vsby restrictions starting at 07Z should set the stage for the rest of the night. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...Franks