Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
696 FXUS61 KILN 181038 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 638 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly winds will result in much above normal temperatures today. A strong cold front will move through the area Sunday morning bringing showers, gusty winds, and falling temperatures. High pressure will briefly build in Monday, but another cold front will cross the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Ridging off to the east of the area will result in deep southerly flow that will bring both warm air and moisture advection through the day. Dew points will be rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s with temperatures soaring into the 80s. The record high at Columbus (83 in 1938 and 2016) could be reached, but the records at Dayton and Cincinnati are both 86 and will be safe. High clouds tracking across the area will move off early this morning, but higher-based stratocumulus will be advecting in from the southwest. Winds will increase through the morning with some gusts in the lower to mid 20 mph range in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Sharp long wave trough will be pivoting into the area during the period, becoming negatively tilted. There are a few dynamic short waves that will be moving through this trough. This will cause a surface low to deepen as it lifts across Illinois into lower Michigan tonight, then continuing off to the north northeast on Sunday. A trailing cold front will cross the forecast area on Sunday morning. A few showers could develop and lift north northeast along the Indiana-Ohio border this evening with a weak leading impulse. But the more widespread showers will hold off until the approach of the front. Instability is forecast to be minimal as this moves through, but there plenty of indications that the showers could mix down some of the stronger winds aloft. And it could remain fairly gusty for a few hours in the wake of the cold front in association with the initial surge of cold air advection. But much of the guidance suite suggest that gustiness will then diminish through the middle of the day. As another short wave drops into the base of the trough, it will bring a secondary surge of cold air advection that will allow wind gusts to pick up again during the latter part of the afternoon heading into the evening. But do not expect the gusts to be as strong as those that occur earlier in the day with and immediately behind the cold front. After a lull in precipitation in the wake of the front, showers will become prevalent as this additional energy moves into the region. Temperatures will remain quite warm for much of the night. There could be a bit of a diurnal rise in temperatures early in the day from central Ohio into northeast Kentucky, but elsewhere highs will be first thing in the morning. Temperatures will be dropping in the wake of the cold front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long wave trough will quickly lift out of the area on Sunday night taking any remaining showers with it. Winds will relax as high pressure starts to build in. Pattern will be progressive with another long wave trough already starting to push into the area Monday night. This broad troughing is associated with a closed low that will move from the upper Mississippi Valley across the upper Great Lakes into Quebec during the week. Associated surface low will stay well north of the area, but a trailing cold front will pass through the region late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Moisture will be more limited with this front and the forcing will not be as strong, so any showers may only be scattered. Will remain in post-frontal cyclonic flow through Wednesday with high pressure building in for the latter part of the week. This will result in a dry period. Temperatures will fall below normal for a day or so after the front but then return close to normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A scattered to broken 6-8kt deck will spread into the region and prevail through much of the period. Southerly winds will increase and gust to around 20 kt this afternoon. Winds will decrease a bit towards 00Z. As a low level jet translates across the area tonight, low level wind shear will develop. On the back side of this low level jet, showers will move in from the west late in the period. This will bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities as well as gusty winds. OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible Sunday morning and then again late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will occur Sunday into Sunday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...