489
FXUS61 KILN 140617
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
217 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary and slow moving upper level
energy will bring periodic showers, with a chance for especially
afternoon/early evening thunderstorms for the next few days.
Temperatures will remain near or just below normal this weekend,
with a warming trend expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
The region remains in a relative lull in shower activity with the
exception of scattered light showers in central Ohio and an
expectation of more widespread showers closer to the surface boundary
between Dayton and Lima. Very little lightning activity, and not
expecting that to increase overnight, so reduced mention of thunder
north of the boundary, with only isolated chances elsewhere.

Overnight lows generally mid/upper 60s, but lower 60s in areas of
west central Ohio toward St. Marys/Kenton areas.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Similar synoptic setup is anticipated for Saturday with a nearby H5
trough and stalled frontal boundary across our CWA. An upper low
tries to pinch off from the flow pattern, but sort of washes out,
indicating that the forcing will generally be weak. Thus, CAMs are
less impressive with coverage of showers and storms on Saturday,
likely becoming more isolated in nature. Additionally, we are
expected to have similar mesoscale parameters as we observed on
Friday. This means that severe potential remains little to none, and
flood potential should remain very isolated. Any flooding concerns
will be limited to areas that get repeated rounds of storms, and/or
if they live in flood-prone areas such as near creeks/rivers.

Given the increased cloud coverage and episodic showers/storms
Saturday, daytime highs will trend near or just below seasonal
normals in the middle 70s to near 80.

Continued chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast
for Saturday night. Muggy conditions and mild overnight lows persist
given the stagnant flow pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday, a very weak, lingering, upper level trough will be
meandering east throughout the day. Thermodynamic profiles on Sunday
show very poor lapse rates, but an unstable airmass. This tropical-
like thermodynamic profile will allow for an increase in PoPs and
clouds on Sunday. The pop-ups that do form on Sunday will be very
limited in terms of severe weather, however with recent rain, and
given the tropical like environment that will be setting up, a
flooding risk could present itself with any cells that train. As the
upper level trough fully moves off to the east, Pops and clouds will
decrease into Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will
be around 80 degrees for the area and low to mid 60s for the
overnight low into Monday morning.

For the work week, heat and humidity both ramp up. A tropical
airmass will almost park itself over the Mid-Atlantic region
allowing for a near continuous hose of moisture to stream northward
from the Gulf.

On average, this time of year, overnight lows are normally in the
low 60s with daytime highs in the low 80s. Keeping that in mind,
Monday expect temps to rebound into the low to mid 80s, with feel
like temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows Monday night into
Tuesday morning will be above average at or just below 70 degrees.
Tuesday we will be around average for our day time highs in the low
to mid 80s, but with that tropical airmass in place, feel like temps
on Tuesday could creep up into the upper 80s and approaching 90
degrees around the Ohio River and in urban heat islands. Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will see lows at or just above 70
degrees.

As of right now, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week,
as we find ourselves in an open warm sector of a passing system in
the northern Great Lakes region. We will see relative humidity
values in the upper 60s to maybe low 70s and highs in the upper 80s
(maybe approaching 90 along the Ohio river), creating a surface
environment with a feel like temps in the low 90s and possibly mid
90s along the Ohio River into Northern Kentucky. We will continue to
monitor this trend, as this is creeping toward Advisory criteria.
Either way with temps this warm, heat exhaustion and heat stroke
start to become a concern for higher risk persons like the elderly,
infants, and those taking certain medications.

As with any tropical air mass, pop up showers and storms are always
a chance with a 50-60 percent chance of pop ups wednesday. With our
very moist airmass, some slight steepening of lapse rates, and maybe
some broad forcing from that system to our northwest, some storms
that do form in this warm sector could have the potential for gusty
winds, but we`re still several days out so specifics are scarce. The
cold front associated with the parent system will move through the
region sometime Wednesday into Thursday, though timing details are
still vague. Some machine learning (CSU/CIPS) lights up over the Mid-
Atlantic region during this time frame for severe, so we will be
keeping an eye on this system as CAMs begin to resolve.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With a lull in precipitation and much of it being north of the TAF
sites, have reduced mention of showers in the near term with the
exception of KCMH/KLCK. Further in the SW toward KLUK/KCVG, IFR cigs
working their way into the area, so expect some restrictions
especially these areas, but also possibly at KDAY/KILN. Handled with
prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR through about 11z. After 11-12z,
expecting MVFR/IFR cigs to improve somewhat, with shra activity
remaining very scattered until the 16-18z timeframe, TSRA will be
limited, so carried as a PROB30 in the 18-23z timeframe. A return of
MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings possible at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK after 00-02z
timeframe.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Sunday through
Wednesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JDR