539
FXUS61 KILN 171046
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lingering across the area for the next several
days will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms across parts
of the region each day. This active pattern will bring the potential
for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area. Damaging
thunderstorm winds will also be possible today.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Precipitation has tapered off across the area, however going into
the day today, thunderstorms will develop around Interstate 70 and
south. Heavy rain is expected with these storms. Flash flooding will
be possible due to the heavy rain. In addition thunderstorms in this
same area will have the potential to produce damaging winds as well.
Mention both of these threats in the HWO. Increased precipitation
chances and added heavy rain mention in the forecast for the threat
areas as well. In coordination with surrounding offices, issued a
flood watch for flash flooding over highest threat area today for
seeing higher rainfall rates that could lead to the potential for
flash flooding. Heat index values near and south of the Ohio River
will have the potential to reach near advisory level today, however
with with thunderstorm potential left mention out of the HWO at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
There will be a decrease in activity during the overnight tonight,
however on Friday additional thunderstorms will develop and move into
the region. The area south of Interstate 70 will once again have the
highest threat for heavy rain and flash flooding. Will continue to
mention flash flood potential in the HWO for Friday as well.
Temperatures and heat index values will be a little lower for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance continues to signal a warm and rainy pattern this weekend.
The period starts Friday night with H5 zonal flow. Ridging will
slowly build to our west starting Saturday as surface high pressure
shifts off to the East Coast. This will allow deep moisture
(approaching 2" PWATs) to return through most of the CWA. In
addition, with a frontal system returning north into the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes, we will likely have enough forcing to spark
showers and storms. Localized flooding will continue to be the
threat... in particular across areas that have received heavy rain
over the last several days.

There is some evidence that the front will slide south near the Ohio
River Sunday night into Monday. This could bring some drier
conditions (relatively speaking) to areas north of I-70 on Monday.
However, with the longwave pattern holding, it will likely remain
close enough that we need to keep at least chance PoPs.

Model spread increases heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, so we
will keep a chance of showers and storms. There is some consensus
for above normal temperatures and an increase in heat indices as the
H5 ridge over the lower to middle Mississippi River Valley continues
to build north. Will monitor this for future inclusion in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorms will develop during the day. Vsbys will be reduced at
times with the thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible near the end of TAF period. MVFR cigs will be possible at
times, especially at the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are likely through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for
     OHZ073-074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for
     INZ075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...