795
FXUS61 KILN 111042
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
642 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Included mention of heavy rainfall on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After a mostly dry Friday, showers and storms are expected on
Saturday.

2) Warming temperatures next week, with the potential for storms
returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A few showers are moving east across the southern portions of the ILN
CWA early this morning, but overall precipitation chances have
diminished. High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide slightly
drier boundary layer conditions for Friday, though theta-e aloft will
extend a little farther north into the ILN forecast area. Forcing is
limited, but a few showers could develop at times through the day in
the southern ILN counties.

As the high moves east, the flow over the Ohio Valley will shift,
allowing a warm and humid air mass to flow back into the area. This
will set up Saturday as the next day with thunderstorms, as an
incoming shortwave interacts with unstable air over the region. The
overall pattern, including the plume of 2" precipitable water values,
will favor the eastern and southern sections of the ILN CWA for heavy
rainfall and possible flooding. This matches the expectations in the
ERO from WPC. Could not totally discount a marginal threat for strong
storms, with some mid-level flow that could support storm
organization, but very narrow CAPE profiles suggest the threat will
be minimal. Thus, heavy rain and flooding will be the main concern
for Saturday.

While the shortwave (and its associated forcing) will clear the area
by Saturday night, a surface cold front will remain upstream. Sunday
may be dry (with just a slight chance of precipitation in the
northern CWA) but it will also be warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Behind a cold front, Monday will be a little cooler than the weekend,
but a warming trend will then ensue for the next few days. Seeing
agreement in the models that a warm area of high pressure will be in
place on Tuesday, with the main frontal / convective zone staying
just north of the high over the Great Lakes. At some point, the
pattern will support this zone moving southward into the ILN CWA,
perhaps by Wednesday and especially by Thursday. As such, PoPs
increase during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible over the next
few hours, but VFR conditions have generally been prevailing. A few
showers will be possible today at the Cincinnati airports, but the
chances are too low to include in the TAFs as of now.

Some low ceilings and reduced visibilities will be possible on early
Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos