704
FXUS61 KILN 140732
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
332 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary and slow moving upper level
energy will bring periodic showers, with a chance for especially
afternoon/early evening thunderstorms for the next few days.
Temperatures will remain near or just below normal this weekend,
with a warming trend expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
While the surface setup today is similar to Friday, albeit with the
surface boundary beginning a little further south into the forecast
area, the upper level pattern will become weaker as the upper trough
becomes more diffuse as it pushes further east. Lack of upper level
forcing is expected to yield less precip coverage than Friday,
with the primary focus area being near and south of the surface
boundary as it slowly drops south through the area, to near the Ohio
River toward late afternoon.

While timing and exact setup of clusters of showers varies, CAMs
paint the picture of scattered activity to start the day focused
along/north of the I70 corridor, filling in a bit with diurnal
instability, then the precip chances slowly sinking south as the
surface boundary finally begins settle toward the Ohio River.
Thunderstorms should be mostly isolated, with scattered rumbles of
thunder more focused along/south of the boundary through the day.

With plenty of clouds, below normal temperatures in the mid 70s
across the far north, to upper 70s-80 again along/south of the I70
corridor.

Keeping a mention of isolated flood issues in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but these should be few and far between and just in problem
areas where repeated moderate rainfall occurs.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As the surface boundary sinks south of the Ohio River this evening
and with the loss of daytime instability, precip chances diminish to
mainly just south central Ohio/NE Kentucky, with widely scattered
activity for the most part. Overnight lows in the low 60s north,
upper 60s south.

The weak upper level trough will continue to affect the region on
Sunday, with mostly showery activity to start the day, spreading in
coverage with isolated to scattered thunderstorms again as diurnal
instability comes into play. Unfavorable low to mid level lapse rates
and lack of dynamic forcing should limit overall thunderstorm
strength. Continued muggy conditions with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday evening, the upper level trough that had been moving
eastward through the region will have largely washed out, leaving a
relatively nebulous flow pattern in place over the Ohio Valley. The
boundary layer flow will actually be light and northeasterly in
nature, with higher theta-e air shunted slightly to the south and
southeast. Any leftover showers and storms from Sunday will be
diminishing and exiting to the southeast, leaving drier and slightly
less cloudy conditions for the overnight hours going into Monday
morning.

The pattern will change a bit heading into next week, with a more
progressive scenario beginning to set up over the region. This setup
will be characterized by persistent southwesterly boundary-layer
flow, and generally zonal (west to west-southwest) flow aloft.
Increasing theta-e will bring greater heat and humidity each day
through Wednesday -- and Wednesday is forecast for highs in the mid
to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Heat indices may reach
the 90s on Wednesday, though this forecast does not have anything
near the 100-degree advisory criteria as of now.

Convective potential through the week remains somewhat uncertain in
terms of the details, but the overall pattern is one that will favor
storm development on occasion, particularly at peak diurnal timing.
With building instability and some increase in tropospheric wind
flow, some severe weather threat could end up developing. The one
feature in this pattern that appears to be a little more pronounced
is a wave currently forecast to move into the Great Lakes Wednesday
night, which could present a little more of an organized threat of
storms from late Wednesday into the overnight hours -- certainly
upstream of the ILN forecast area, and possibly including the ILN
forecast area. Forecast specifics become even less clear from
Thursday onward, as there are differences in the timing of the
aforementioned wave and an associated cold front.

&&

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With a lull in precipitation and much of it being north of the TAF
sites, have reduced mention of showers in the near term with the
exception of KCMH/KLCK. Further in the SW toward KLUK/KCVG, IFR cigs
working their way into the area, so expect some restrictions
especially these areas, but also possibly at KDAY/KILN. Handled with
prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR through about 11z. After 11-12z,
expecting MVFR/IFR cigs to improve somewhat, with shra activity
remaining very scattered until the 16-18z timeframe, TSRA will be
limited, so carried as a PROB30 in the 18-23z timeframe. A return of
MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings possible at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK after 00-02z
timeframe.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Sunday through
Wednesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR