821
FXUS61 KILN 252255
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions return on Sunday along with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure progresses east of the Ohio Valley tonight
bringing an end to the stretch of cool and dry conditions from this
past week. Warm and humid air returns on southerly flow west of the
departing high to start the week while upper level northwesterly
flow persists. A couple periods of showers and storms are possible
to start the week.

The first chance for showers and storms is on Sunday night. A
cluster of storms/MCS may form in the Great Lakes region Sunday
evening before diving south overnight. The best instability remains
to our west which would likely favor any storms that do form diving
south into Indiana and Illinois out of Michigan. However, the
presence of some instability over our area allows at least a low end
chance for precipitation. The severe risk with any storms Sunday
night is marginal since MLCAPE should be fairly limited under a
nocturnal inversion despite ample shear being present for storm
organization.

The second, and much higher, chance for storms is on Monday and
Monday night when clusters of storms/MCSs may form to our northwest
ahead of an approaching cold front before diving south into the Ohio
Valley. Precise convective details are highly uncertain since the
background environment over the region will likely be characterized
by moderate to high instability and sufficient shear for organized
convection with little in the way of organized forcing. Storm to
storm interactions and lingering outflow boundaries from antecedent
convection will have large impacts on how Monday/Monday night plays
out. At the time, the most likely timing for storms over the Ohio
Valley is Monday night. However, convection that occurs on Sunday
and Sunday night could easily impact the forecast during the day on
Monday. A damaging wind threat exists given the potential for
organized clusters of storms/MCSs Monday into Monday night.

In addition, hot and humid conditions on Monday could lead to the
heat index reaching the 95-100 degree range if convection does not
occur early in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
However, a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities will occur early
Sunday morning, with this being most likely at the Cincinnati
airports. Winds will be light and variable overnight.

On Sunday, once the MVFR conditions have improved, VFR conditions
are expected through the rest of the TAF period. There is a very
small chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day into Sunday
evening, but much too low a chance to include in the TAFs at this
time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night. Thunderstorms are
possible again Monday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Hatzos