515
FXUS61 KILN 011801
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain showers to
the region tonight into early Monday. A stronger system will result
in a more widespread rainfall event for the middle part of the week.

2) An upper trough will cross the region on Friday, bringing
temperatures back to near normal across the region in northerly
surface flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A weak upper disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and bring
scattered light showers to the region overnight and early Monday. Off
of the surface, dry air is in place and these overnight showers will
have a very dry atmosphere to precipitate through before they will
actually reach the ground. Any precip is expected to be generally
light on the order of .01-.02 inches, but a isolated spot or two
could see a wetting rainfall. The disparity here is noted in the
models as hit and miss QPF in light rain or showers.

Ahead of the short wave, a developing 20-30 knot low level jet will
lift up into our area this evening into tonight and aid in the
development of showers given a strong moisture transport.

Models have come in a much better conformity with the next system
that will affect the region on Wednesday with a period of rain and
showers, significantly more moist than what will be seen overnight
tonight.

A cutoff low in the Upper Midwest early Wed will move ne through WI
or possibly N through MN during the day. In either scenario, a
notable dry punch will be wrapped into the system and have its
western edge over the IN/OH border by nightfall. Rain after nightfall
is expected to be in the eastern reaches of the forecast area and
moving steadily east to be out of the picture by midnight.

Key message 2) On Friday, cold advection showers will be present in
northerly flow behind the upper low that will hang a l/w trough over
the Ohio Valley and provide a source of lift to lingering llvl
moisture. Sfc high pressure will then build behind it and dry out the
region through at least Saturday.

Above normal temperatures will prevail through Friday and then drop
to near normal which will feel notably cooler with highs in the mid
50s and lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ongoing showers in srn IN will still take a lot to produce any
significant rain along the IN/OH border as dewpoint depressions are
12-20 deg. In fact, the AWOS in Bedford IN was reporting 10sm -ra
from clear skies.

Mid and high level clouds will continue to lower as the atmosphere
moistens up from top to bottom. While chance of rain is high, any
significant rain dropping vsby is low and this was handled by using
prob30 for lower vsbys in -shra. Regardless of precip or not, cigs
will lower to MVFR after midnight and drop to the low end of MVFR
early tomorrow. IFR cloud deck could occur at the end of any precip
as the lower atmosphere has had a chance to reach saturation.

Cigs improve at the end of the CVG 30 hour terminal forecast but
should stay low end MVFR for remaining terminals.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wed and Thurs.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks