Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
305 FXUS61 KILN 301043 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 643 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will offer dry weather through the weekend into early next week. A southerly flow on the back side of this retreating high marks an increase in moisture and a return of rain chances Tuesday, increasing as we head into the middle week. The passage of a frontal system will bring dry weather for end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure remaining to our north centered over the Great Lakes. A light northeasterly flow will be observed with the surface high pressure to our north. A weak embedded shortwave will only result in some high level clouds in the dry airmass. Few to scattered fair weather cumulus clouds will be possible this afternoon. Temperatures remain below normal with highs ranging from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s along and south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. A weak embedded shortwave will only result in some high level clouds spilling across the area. Cool temperatures drop to lows from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south. Surface high pressure persists across the Great Lakes on Sunday, with continued light northeasterly low level flow expected across the area. Mostly sunny skies will aid temperatures in warming a few degrees above today`s readings. Reading will remain about a category below normal with highs in the mid and upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Sunday evening, a broad area of surface high pressure will be centered over southern Ontario. Broad troughing will still be in place across much of the eastern CONUS, but the overall flow will be weak, as the height pattern becomes more nebulous. By the middle of the week, deep troughing will develop upstream, then move east through the rest of the week. This will provide chances for precipitation for the ILN CWA, primarily from Tuesday through Thursday. Monday is expected to remain dry, with some semblance of surface high pressure still in place over the region. Moisture will begin to increase more markedly on Tuesday, with a southerly component to the boundary-layer flow. A weak shortwave will interact with this increase in moisture, and bring some showers to the southern portions of the forecast area as early as Tuesday afternoon. Rain looks most likely on Wednesday and Thursday, with forcing becoming more well-defined ahead of the developing upper trough, along with the cold front that is forecast to move through some time Thursday. Looks like there may be just enough instability for thunder, but the soundings are somewhat moist, with poor lapse rates and unimpressive surface temperatures keeping CAPE values fairly low. As of now, there are no concerns for hazardous weather with this system. Behind the cold front, another dry air mass will move into the region for Friday and into the weekend. In terms of temperatures, Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days of the extended forecast period, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Even these temperatures will remain slightly below normal. Highs will decrease slightly on Wednesday, with precipitation expected, and then fall even further behind the cold front on Thursday (mid 60s to lower 70s). && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will offer mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. After some brief MVFR vsby restrictions due to fog at KLUK and KILN - expect VFR conditions thru the remainder of the day into tonight. Few to scattered cumulus clouds will be observed this aftn along with some mid and high level clouds. High level clouds this evening spilling in from the northwest will thin out overnight. The development of river valley fog will be possible again late tonight. With a dry airmass and light northeast flow have limited the mention to MVFR at KLUK valley location. North winds at around 5 kts this morning will increase to 7 to 10 kts this afternoon and then drop off to around 5 kts or less overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR