Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
715 FXUS61 KILN 142352 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 752 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy fog will develop overnight. A frontal boundary will oscillate across the area keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the week. A seasonably warm and humid pattern will continue through the week as well. The active pattern, especially toward the end of the week, may bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Isolated showers will persist through the evening hours before tapering off. Fog is expected to develop across southern and eastern portions of the area and therefore have patchy fog in across these locations. Low temperatures will generally be in the 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Mid level ridge axis builds east across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. Fog that develops overnight will improve quickly after sunrise. Focus shift to next shortwave that approaches from the southwest during the daytime on Tuesday as it rides along the NW periphery of the ridge axis. Moisture returns northward with favorable moisture advection and ascent returning to the area. NBM appears too quick bringing pops into the southwest early and therefore have slowed onset until afternoon. Pops increase late in the day into Tuesday evening with high chance pops across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. A threat for heavy rain and flooding will develop with PWats increasing to 2+ inches late in the day into Tuesday night. Will continue to keep the mention of locally heavy rain/flooding potential in the HWO to account for this potential. High temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 with lows Tuesday night generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Current warm and humid conditions continue through the extended period. While strong troughs and fronts remain absent during this summer pattern, weak impulses (many the result of meso scale convective features) will be all that it takes to trigger convection in our area. This results in model uncertainty as far as exact timing and location of precipitation. Main weather threat will continue to be localized flooding in areas receiving repeated rounds of thunderstorms from day to day. For Wednesday, latest guidance shows the potential for a convective complex moving through the lower Great Lakes. After a brief respite Wednesday night, a northern stream disturbance will begin to compress the mid-level ridge over the southern United States. An accompanying cold front will aid in a more widespread coverage of convection Thursday afternoon into Friday. Ensemble guidance keeps this pattern going through the weekend as minor shortwaves move along zonal flow and a weak stationary boundary possibly located near our area. Details are uncertain at this time range, so stayed with the National Blend of Models and its high chances of showers each day. Additional updates are expected as details come into better focus moving forward. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A few showers will be possible at the start of the TAF period. Due to the isolated and light nature of the showers, left mention out of the TAFs. Fog will develop overnight at most of the area TAF sites, however kept KDAY VFR. Have the lowest visibility at KILN due to heavier rainfall this morning. VFR cu will develop again for Tuesday. Showers and some thunderstorms will start to work back into the region through the day and therefore have a prob30 of shra or tsra at the area TAF sites. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...