384
FXUS61 KILN 212345
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
745 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday
as another cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Dry conditions persist through tonight, with some fog development
possible again. However, most of the fog will be confined to the
river valleys and portions of north-central KY into the Scioto
Valley.

Heading into Saturday, a shortwave trough will eject through the Ohio
Valley, helping to generate scattered showers and storms during the
day. Some CAMs do show some isolated showers developing during the
mid to late morning hours, but the better chances for convection will
be during the afternoon and evening.

PWATs still only appear to be reaching the 1.25" to 1.50" range.
While brief pockets of heavier showers are possible, cells are
expected to be more progressive, limiting any hydro/flooding
concerns.

SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday.
Most CAMs do try to develop moderate instability into our CWA, but
model guidance does suggest a fair amount of cloud coverage
throughout the day. Effective shear generally remains around 25 kts
on the high end, so storm organization will be limited. However,
cannot rule out a few rogue storms that have some strong to damaging
wind gusts. Large hail also cannot be ruled out with some cooler air
aloft and lower freezing levels, but that risk appears to remain
isolated as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated thunderstorm activity is occurring near DAY at the start of
the period. Otherwise, expecting dry conditions until renewed
thunderstorm chances arrive with a cold front tomorrow. Until
confidence increases, started with PROB30s starting around 15Z for
DAY and ending by 22Z for CMH/LCK. The cold front moves west to east
across the area changing west-southwesterly winds to northwesterly
following the storms.

For tonight, mostly clear skies are forecast with some BR expected
into Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...McGinnis