559
FXUS61 KILN 021746
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1246 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A more widespread rain is expected on Wednesday as a strong upper
level low pressure center moves northeast through the Upper Midwest.

2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region
late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to more
seasonable temperatures and occasional chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

An upper level trough axis will move out of the Plains on Tuesday
and into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. As the upper low moves
northeast, a wind shift associated with a surface low underneath it
will pass east through the Ohio Valley. This will bring a good shot
of rain ahead of it with rapid drying in its wake Wednesday evening.

Increasingly strong southerly flow ahead of the wind shift will bring
strong moisture advection beginning late Tuesday night and
continuing into Wednesday. Fairly widespread shower activity will
overspread the region on these strong southerly winds. As
instability is expected to be limited, thunder potential will be on
the low side. Precipitation will then taper off from the west
heading into Wednesday night as the trough axis shifts eastward.

Key message 2)
Overnight Friday has a cold front extending south from a remnant
upper l/w trough, with some light lake effect showers possible with
northerly flow. Typical evolution of a post-frontal atmosphere with
an exiting upper trough or low pressure center would have cold
advection showers over the region. The time this period is over the
CWA looks to be at the overnight minima so there is currently only a
low chance for showers behind it through daybreak Saturday.

Temperatures behind this front will return to normal and stay near
there from Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR cigs have been lingering for quite a while this morning and
should show a gradual lift from s-n later today, reaching VFR towards
midnight at CVG/LUK, later overnight for remaining terminals. Until
they do lift above about 800`, some -dz with a MVFR vsby restriction
is possible, but not overly likely.

South wind 10-14kt will lower in the evening to 7-10kt (even less at
CMH/LCK around 4-5kt) and then pick back up later tomorrow morning.

Cigs should remain VFR tomorrow as a strong sly wind in the lower
levels mixes any llvl moisture in the region.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks