544
FXUS61 KILN 140211
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stalled frontal boundary and slow moving upper level energy will
result in several days with episodic showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures trend near or just below normal this weekend, with a
warming trend expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Precipitation is generally limited to the edges of the forecast area
this evening. Additional precipitation however will work into the
area overnight. While a shower or storm cannot be ruled out anywhere
overnight, the greatest coverage is expected to be across west
central and northwestern portions of the area.

Where winds are currently more out of the northeast across northern
portions of the region, temperatures have dropped off into the 60s.
Elsewhere across the region, most locations are in the 70s. Expect
all locations to drop off into the 60s, however northwestern portions
of the region will have lows in the lower 60s and other area
locations will be middle to upper 60s for lows. Across the northern
locations there are some minor visibility decreases, however do not
expect visibility to drop that low overnight and therefore did not
put in the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Similar synoptic setup is anticipated for Saturday with a nearby H5
trough and stalled frontal boundary across our CWA. An upper low
tries to pinch off from the flow pattern, but sort of washes out,
indicating that the forcing will generally be weak. Thus, CAMs are
less impressive with coverage of showers and storms on Saturday,
likely becoming more isolated in nature. Additionally, we are
expected to have similar mesoscale parameters as we observed on
Friday. This means that severe potential remains little to none, and
flood potential should remain very isolated. Any flooding concerns
will be limited to areas that get repeated rounds of storms, and/or
if they live in flood-prone areas such as near creeks/rivers.

Given the increased cloud coverage and episodic showers/storms
Saturday, daytime highs will trend near or just below seasonal
normals in the middle 70s to near 80.

Continued chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms are forecast
for Saturday night. Muggy conditions and mild overnight lows persist
given the stagnant flow pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday, a very weak, lingering, upper level trough will be
meandering east throughout the day. Thermodynamic profiles on Sunday
show very poor lapse rates, but an unstable airmass. This tropical-
like thermodynamic profile will allow for an increase in PoPs and
clouds on Sunday. The pop-ups that do form on Sunday will be very
limited in terms of severe weather, however with recent rain, and
given the tropical like environment that will be setting up, a
flooding risk could present itself with any cells that train. As the
upper level trough fully moves off to the east, Pops and clouds will
decrease into Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will
be around 80 degrees for the area and low to mid 60s for the
overnight low into Monday morning.

For the work week, heat and humidity both ramp up. A tropical
airmass will almost park itself over the Mid-Atlantic region
allowing for a near continuous hose of moisture to stream northward
from the Gulf.

On average, this time of year, overnight lows are normally in the
low 60s with daytime highs in the low 80s. Keeping that in mind,
Monday expect temps to rebound into the low to mid 80s, with feel
like temps in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows Monday night into
Tuesday morning will be above average at or just below 70 degrees.
Tuesday we will be around average for our day time highs in the low
to mid 80s, but with that tropical airmass in place, feel like temps
on Tuesday could creep up into the upper 80s and approaching 90
degrees around the Ohio River and in urban heat islands. Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will see lows at or just above 70
degrees.

As of right now, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day of the week,
as we find ourselves in an open warm sector of a passing system in
the northern Great Lakes region. We will see relative humidity
values in the upper 60s to maybe low 70s and highs in the upper 80s
(maybe approaching 90 along the Ohio river), creating a surface
environment with a feel like temps in the low 90s and possibly mid
90s along the Ohio River into Northern Kentucky. We will continue to
monitor this trend, as this is creeping toward Advisory criteria.
Either way with temps this warm, heat exhaustion and heat stroke
start to become a concern for higher risk persons like the elderly,
infants, and those taking certain medications.

As with any tropical air mass, pop up showers and storms are always
a chance with a 50-60 percent chance of pop ups wednesday. With our
very moist airmass, some slight steepening of lapse rates, and maybe
some broad forcing from that system to our northwest, some storms
that do form in this warm sector could have the potential for gusty
winds, but we`re still several days out so specifics are scarce. The
cold front associated with the parent system will move through the
region sometime Wednesday into Thursday, though timing details are
still vague. Some machine learning (CSU/CIPS) lights up over the Mid-
Atlantic region during this time frame for severe, so we will be
keeping an eye on this system as CAMs begin to resolve.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The TAF sites are in a general lull in the precipitation for the
start of the TAF period, with just a few showers around KCMH and
KLCK. Off and on shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
however during the TAF period with the greatest chance for the
thunderstorm activity near the end of the TAF period Saturday
afternoon into the evening. There are isolated MVFR cigs at the start
of the TAF period, however later overnight expect additional MVFR and
some IFR cigs to develop. Cigs will improve some during the day on
Saturday, however MVFR cigs will still be possible at many of the TAF
sites. At KDAY cigs may drop back to IFR at the end of the TAF
period. Outside of a potential thunderstorm, winds are expected to be
light and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Saturday evening through
Wednesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...