624
FXUS61 KILN 110553
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Heat Advisory for our far north today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions are expected again today. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Additional
showers and thunderstorms can be expected again late this evening
and into the overnight hours.


2) A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move in behind the cold
front for Friday afternoon and into Saturday. A secondary cold front
will bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Sunday along with
cooler temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Widespread showers and thunderstorms off to our west early this
morning are forecast to gradually dissipate as they move east into
our western areas through the pre-dawn hours. An outflow boundary is
evident on radar out ahead of the initial areas of storms moving
through northwest Indiana so this should help those dissipate. Will
have to see how things transition though with the stronger convection
back across central Illinois attm. The airmass to the south of the
outflow boundary remains more unstable so this activity may linger a
bit longer with its eastward push. Overall though, any severe threat
should be low with any storms that are able to make it into our
western areas through daybreak. The biggest threat will likely just
be some gusty winds with any remnant outflow boundaries.

It looks like we will have another day with borderline Heat Advisory
conditions. There is some of uncertainty though as we head through
late morning with lingering clouds from the current MCS and what
effect that will have on temperatures. Another concern is that most
of the hi-res models are suggesting isolated to scattered
thunderstorms redeveloping later this morning and into this
afternoon, and then what effect those could have on temperatures.
Will go ahead and continue with highs mostly in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees. This will result in heat indices in the 95 to 100
degree range. Will match up with neighboring office with a Heat
Advisory across our far north for today, but handle the rest of the
area with an SPS given some of the uncertainties.

Any daytime diurnally enhanced thunderstorms will dissipate heading
into this evening. However, widespread thunderstorms will progress
southeast into our area later tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. Some better deep layer shear will work in from the northwest
overnight and this may allow for these storms to maintain their
intensity more before they begin to weaken later tonight as they
move southeast across our area. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible tonight, especially across our northwestern
areas. Damaging wind would be the primary concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
The cold front should be just about east of our area by Friday
morning so expect any lingering showers and storms across our
southeast to taper off through the morning hours. A drier and
somewhat cooler airmass will then settle into the area through Friday
afternoon and continue into the day on Saturday.

A mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley during
the day on Sunday, helping to push a secondary cold front through
our area. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. It
will also usher in a cooler airmass for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms off to our west are expected to
weaken as the progress east into our area through daybreak and will
cover this threat with a couple hour prob30 for -shra. If the storms
hold together long enough through the pre-dawn hours, some gusts to
around 30 knots or so will be possible with any showers/storms that
reach the TAF sites. We should then see a lull in pcpn through much
of the rest of the morning, but additional isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible as we head into the afternoon.
These will be more diurnally driven and should taper off through late
afternoon/early evening.

A cold front will approach the area from the west tonight. This will
lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms overspreading the
area from the northwest through the overnight hours.

Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of any showers or
storms.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-
     034-035.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL