Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
173 FXUS61 KILN 151114 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 614 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy southwest winds will lead to well above normal temperatures today. Showers will develop as we head into this evening and a cold front moves southeast through the region. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid level energy will continue to move east across the Great Lakes region through today. As it does, as associated surface low will push across the northern Great Lakes with an attendant cold front dropping down toward our area through this afternoon. Ahead of this, a strengthening low level jet will shift east across our area through this afternoon and as the pressure gradient strengthens, breezy conditions will develop with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range later this morning and into the afternoon. Meanwhile, increasing moisture advection will eventually lead to a developing chance of showers along and ahead of the front through late afternoon. In the WAA pattern, temperatures will be well above normal today with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The cold front will push southeast across our area through this evening with showers becoming more widespread along and ahead of the front across our southeast. Some marginal instabilities will develop across our southeast through this evening so a few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible. Given the wind fields, there may be a very small window for a few strong to severe storms across our far southeast this evening. Damaging wind would be the main threat, but overall confidence in this all coming together is somewhat low attm. Drier air will move in behind the front later tonight with pcpn coming to an end and a decreasing cloud trend. A dry and cooler airmass will settle into the region for Sunday. Temperatures will be more seasonable with afternoon highs in the upper 40s north to low/mid 50s in the south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure continues to nudge into the region from the west on Sunday night, keeping conditions calm and tranquil. Temperatures Sunday night fall to the 20s in the post frontal environment, with high pressure and clear skies. Monday remains quiet and dry, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Meanwhile, there is decent consensus that, aloft, a shortwave disturbance to our west will be opening up/weakening as it travels through the broader flow toward our region. This will be the next weather maker for our area, with the cloud and precipitation shield overspreading the region Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance has been consistently shifting this feature farther north with each run, so thermal profiles have been warming, indicating that primary p- type will be (a cold) rain. Though, there is some chance for a wintry mix along and north of I-70 during the early morning hours on Tuesday, though confidence is low enough at the moment that have kept grids as all rain. Tuesday looks to be a grungy day, with cloud cover, periods of rain, and highs in the 40s. PWATs aren`t particularly robust, especially with the system decaying, but most areas will pick up 0.1 to 0.2" of rain. The end of the work week appears to remain active, though the signal is quite muddled. A deep, longwave, trough will be present across western CONUS Wednesday and Thursday and will eventually track toward the Ohio Valley. However, that`s about where the consensus ends. Ensemble guidance is all over the place with trying to resolve various shortwaves in the larger flow, progression of the larger trough itself, timing etc... For now, have enough confidence to say that the pattern will remain active, with a warming trend likely, given the digging trough to the west, resulting in ridging over our area. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Southwest winds will increase this morning with wind gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range possible later this morning and into this afternoon. Meanwhile, VFR stratocumulus will continue to fill in this morning and persist into this afternoon. Some MVFR cigs may also develop later this morning into early afternoon, especially at the northern TAF sites. A cold front will move southeast across the area late this afternoon into this evening. As it approaches, scattered showers will develop and will handle this with a few hour prob30. Some MVFR conditions will also be possible at times with the showers. Pcpn will taper off later this evening as the front moves through with partial clearing developing through the end of the TAF period. Winds will also swing around to the northwest later tonight behind the front with some gusts to around 20 knots still possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL