Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
323 FXUS61 KILN 221800 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 100 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into the day on Monday. Wet conditions will return Monday night through part of the day on Wednesday. Cooler and dry conditions return for the holiday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation has tapered off and generally expect dry conditions. Cannot rule out a sprinkle around central Ohio overnight, however did not include in the forecast with low probability of occurrence. There will be the potential for some river valley fog late in the overnight. Lows will be in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are in the forecast through the short term. High temperatures in the 50s are expected for Sunday. Sunday night lows will be cooler with lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. There will be the potential for some fog and stratus development Sunday night across southern portions of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure shifts east of the region on Monday. Southerly flow west of the high brings in warmer air and increasing moisture through the day as upper level ridging builds. Forecast highs reach into the 50s under increasing clouds. By late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, a low pressure system moves into the upper midwest lifting a warm front through the Ohio Valley while an upper level shortwave also moves through the area. Widespread rain is expected into Tuesday morning with these two features overlapping increased moisture. After the initial surge of widespread rain during the first half of Tuesday, precipitation is likely to become more scattered ahead of a cold front lagging much further to the west. Currently, frontal passage is not forecast to occur until Wednesday which means rain chances persist at least into Wednesday morning for most locations. Rain chances finally decrease behind the front later on Wednesday from west to east. For Wednesday night through Saturday, dry conditions and below average temperatures are likely. Thanksgiving is currently forecast to have highs near 40, a mix of sun and clouds, and a westerly breeze. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There will be some lingering MVFR cigs around KCVG, KLUK, and KILN through a portion of the afternoon hours. After this time, went with VFR conditions in the TAFs, however cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR or IFR cigs late in the overnight hours. Winds will pick up for Sunday. Wind gusts through the end of the TAF period will be possible, but with the isolated expected nature through that time decided to leave out at this time. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible into Wednesday. Breezy conditions Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...