451
FXUS61 KILN 161841
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
241 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lingering across the area for the next
several days will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms
across parts of the region each day. A warm and humid pattern will
also continue through the next several days. This active pattern
will bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the
area, especially into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCV over the Ohio/Indiana border continues to push east through the
area, with shower/embedded thunderstorms starting to become a little
more numerous. PWs across the region near 2 inches, which could
result in downpours of up to 2 inches per hour, especially where
storms may cluster, but overall storm motion fairly progressive. With
storms closer to the MCV, could be some potential for strong storms
with a severe storm not out of the question. The main area of concern
with clustering/repeated bouts of heavier rain would be in areas of
central Ohio late this afternoon before gradually waning into the
evening hours.

Scattered showers should linger across especially areas south of I70
overnight, but without the focused clustering as what is expected for
Wednesday afternoon.

Warm and humid overnight with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the boundary lingering across the area and yet another shortwave
pushing in from the west, renewed chances for clustering showers and
storms especially along/south of the I70 corridor on Thursday, which
is the current thinking of where the boundary will settle, though
some uncertainty on where it will linger during the day. The threat
again will be locally heavy rain, and the potential for isolated
flash flooding, especially where thunderstorms cluster and/or run
over areas which receive heavy rain on Wednesday. Localized rainfall
amounts of 3 inches are possible.

Perhaps a greater potential for isolated severe storms on Thursday,
with SBCAPE values increasing to 3k J/kg or greater and the potential
for outflow boundary interaction bringing isolated damaging wind
possibilities especially across the south.

Still not confident in the potential for a flood watch, as
location/focus of the heaviest rain on Thursday may be further south
than the Wednesdays rain, but will continue to mention the potential
for localized flood hazards via other means.

For Thursday night, there is a greater potential for thunderstorms to
linger. While the frontal boundary will still be stretched across the
central forecast area, yet another shortwave traveling across the
boundary may drag it further south, continuing to focus the heavy
rain potential especially across the southern third of the forecast
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is potential for a slight lull in focused repeated heavy rain
on Friday, as the frontal boundary settles south of the Ohio River,
keeping the focus for heavier rain further south. Where a
renewed/more concerning threat occurs is Saturday and Sunday, when
strong ridging over the southern CONUS, with increasing
moisture/instability again over the forecast area. This along with
strengthening NW flow, creating a favorable environment of MCS
activity and yet more potential for heavy rain. As the ridge
continues to strengthen and build north, the area remains on the
periphery of the strengthening ridge, meaning the potential for heavy
rain ridge riders in the NW flow, and the potential for strong storms
and continued heavy rain, this time bringing the potential for a more
focused path than the earlier scattered/small clusters of heavier
rainfall. Still a fair amount of uncertainty on the strength and
position of the building ridge and how it affects associated surface
features along its periphery and the resultant possible focus for
thunderstorm setup.


While the focus for



On Saturday, a ridge over the southeast US competes with another
shortwave moving into Midwest. The local area begins to see the
Friday front lift northeastward, opening up the potential for a new
r

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weakening MCV pushing through the region and serving as a focus for
thunderstorm clusters. Occasional MVFR ceilings and visibility in
heavier showers, with some embedded thunderstorms. Main focus period
will be through 21z in the west and near 00z in the east.

Coverage of showers/storms decreases after 00z, with potential for
lingering showers at KCMH/KLCK through about 02z. Brought in
potential for renewed storms as a PROB30 for the extended TAF at KCVG
after 19z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...JDR