379
FXUS61 KILN 190550
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
150 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight, with some
precipitation continuing into Thursday. Drier weather is then
expected on Friday and into the weekend, with heat and humidity
increasing by Sunday and into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Update...
Convective line that produced severe weather this evening is pushing
east of ILN/s FA. Elevated instability remains in place but the
threat for severe weather has ended. Therefore, the severe
thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. Scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorm chances linger overnight due to the
instability and continued forcing. This secondary activity may
produce pockets of heavy rain. Forecast lows drop into the mid and
upper 60s tonight.

Previous Discussion...
An organized line of thunderstorms continues to progress eastward
through the area this evening ahead of a convergent axis south of a
surface low to the northwest. Strong to severe gusts have been
observed with these storms along with numerous reports of wind damage
across western Ohio and eastern Indiana. Although the line of storms
has been exhibiting a slow weakening trend (outrunning the strongest
shear), severe gusts are still possible across central Ohio,
southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky.

After the line of storms progresses east this evening, scattered
showers and thunderstorm chances may linger overnight as instability
remains in place across the region. This secondary activity is not
expected to pose anywhere near the severe threat as this evening`s
convection since since shear and forcing are diminishing.
Isolated pockets of heavy rain remain a threat. Forecast lows only
drop into the upper 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Despite the expected severe weather Wednesday evening, the low
pressure and surface cold front remain north and west of the local
area Thursday morning. Southwesterly flow still supplies dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s with temperatures attempting to warm into the
mid to upper 70s during the mid-morning hours. As a result, showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop throughout the morning
hours and into the early afternoon as the cold front begins to
progress through the area.

Temperatures throughout the day may initially warm up before the
cold front begins to move through, with northern locations seeing
temperatures drop into the early afternoon before warming a few
degrees into the early evening. Across the south, temperatures will
warm up during the morning before dropping during the late afternoon.
All in all, temperatures are likely near or evening below normal
tomorrow depending on the location.

The trough moves through during the evening hours, supplying drier
conditions into Friday morning. Temperatures from the upper 50s to
mid 60s are forecast to kick off the last day of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very stable signal continues in guidance suite concerning developing
upper level ridge. This will expand northeast through the weekend,
reaching peak intensity early next week over the upper Ohio Valley as
a 2 to 2.5 sigma anomaly. It will be hot and humid with highs in the
lower to mid 90s from Sunday into Tuesday with dew points generally
in the lower 70s, although some mid 70s are not out of the question.
There is a high probability (60 to 80 percent) of heat indices
reaching the advisory criteria of 100 and probabilities of reaching
the 105 warning threshold have been trending higher (30 to 50
percent).

By Wednesday, the ridge will start to weaken although only slightly.
So, temperatures will be not quite as hot but still likely in the
lower 90s. Also by then, there will be the potential for some diurnal
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers with a isold embedded thunderstorms continue across the area
this morning as mid level short wave trof tracks thru the Great
Lakes. The precipitation will decrease in coverage overnight.
MVFR ceilings to develop overnight, and continue into Thursday
morning before improving to VFR. Scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity is again possible Thursday ahead of an approaching surface cold
front. Southwesterly winds around 10-15 knots persist before veering
to the west Thursday afternoon around 15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts
possible.

Surface high pressure builds into the area Thursday night and skies
clear and winds become light.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR