398
FXUS61 KILN 011056
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
556 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain showers to
the region tonight into Monday. A stronger system will result in
more widespread precipitation for the middle part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A weak mid level short wave will move across the Ohio Valley today
through Monday morning. The low levels will remain quite dry through
this afternoon, so while it will be tough to rule out a few
sprinkles, think the main effect for the daytime period will mainly
just be some mid level cloudiness. Ahead of the short wave, a
developing 20-30 knot low level jet will lift up into our area this
evening into tonight. As we continue to moisten up, this will lead to
developing scattered showers this evening. These will continue
through tonight and then linger into Monday morning before
dissipating.

Models have trended a little slower with the upper level trough
moving out of the central U.S. through mid week. Nonetheless,
increasing southerly flow ahead of this system will allow for decent
moisture advection into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to
widespread showers overspreading our area on Wednesday, with
precipitation chances then persisting into Thursday. MU capes look to
be minimal at best so would think any embedded thunder chances would
be limited. A secondary mid level short wave moving through the
Great Lakes region will lead to additional chances for showers on
Friday.

Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level clouds will prevail into this evening ahead of a weak mid
level short wave moving through the Ohio Valley. A few sprinkles will
be possible at times today. A weak low level jet ahead of the short
wave will lead to a developing chance for showers this evening and
into the overnight hours. As the low levels moisten up, cigs will
lower into MVFR category later tonight into Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL