Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
046 FXUS61 KILN 011735 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifting into the mid Atlantic will keep generally dry conditions across the region into midweek, although a weak low passing south of the area could spark a few daytime showers Tuesday or Wednesday. The better chance of rain will come as a cold front pushes through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. After a brief warm up, this front will usher in the return of unseasonably cool temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure center over the eastern Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will move into the mid Atlantic. This will result in the light low level flow veering to more easterly. Few to scattered cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. The trend of slightly warmer low temperatures with each passing night will continue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak low pressure induced by minor mid level impulse moving through the flow will slowly meander out of the mid South into Kentucky during the period. Forcing and moisture are pretty marginal with this, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out along or south of the Ohio River during peak diurnal heating. Otherwise, there will be a few more high-based cumulus due to this weak system. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s with lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short wave passing across Kentucky and Tennessee early in the period will bring an increase in moisture, although primarily in the mid to upper levels with precipitable water values still below normal. This could bring some showers to southern and eastern counties on Wednesday, but probability of measurable precipitation and any potential amounts look meager. Highs will be near persistence with lows getting close to seasonal normal. Guidance has been honing in on the timing of an initial short wave preceding a developing closed low bringing the former across the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will be accompanied by a cold front. The passage of these features will bring the greatest potential for rainfall in and for quite a while. The probability of getting at least 1/4 inch are 50 to 70 percent, but the probability of 1/2 inch is 20 percent or less. The closed low will remain centered over the upper Great Lakes into Ontario through the end of the week. Spread within the ensemble envelope has decreased with the main discrepancies seen with the timing and amplitude of another short wave coming down the back side of the low and rounding the base of the long wave trough Friday into Saturday. And even in regards to this, spread is not substantial. This latter short wave will drive a secondary cold front across the area at the end of the week. Moisture will be limited so any showers along it are likely to be spotty and light. Unseasonably cool temperatures will return in the wake of the initial cold front. Winds could get a bit gusty on Friday ahead of the second front. If rainfall underperforms on Wednesday night/Thursday, this wind could cause some fire weather concerns. At this point, it is just something of which to remain mindful. As the upper low lifts out early next week, the long wave trough will weaken quickly allowing the flow to become more zonal towards the end of the period. Dry conditions will return with a nascent warming trend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cumulus across the region will dissipate with the loss of heating. While low level flow will remain light, it will become more easterly. This is somewhat more favorable for shallow fog to affect KLUK. So have continued to forecast a period of visibility restrictions there towards 12Z. Beyond that, VFR will persist. Higher based cumulus will occur later in the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...