143
FXUS61 KILN 141735
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will oscillate across the area keeping the threat
for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the week. A
seasonably warm and humid pattern will continue through the week as
well. The active pattern, especially toward the end of the week, may
bring the potential for heavy rain and flooding to parts of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Thunderstorm complex that produced an narrow axis of 1 to 3 inches
of rain from Franklin County Indiana thru Fairfield County Ohio
overnight/early today has shifted off to the east. Weak front stalls
out and deeper moisture with higher PWat axis is suppressed slightly
south as drier air moves into northern Ohio. Aside from an isold
early shower/storm across the far south and east early expect a
general lull in pcpn activity overnight. Light winds, combined with
lingering low level moisture will lead to fog development across
ILN/s southern and eastern counties. Seasonably warm and muggy
conditions tonight with low temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge axis builds east across the region late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Fog that develops overnight will improve quickly
after sunrise. Focus shift to next shortwave that approaches from the
southwest during the daytime on Tuesday as it rides along the NW
periphery of the ridge axis. Moisture returns northward with
favorable moisture advection and ascent returning to the area. NBM
appears too quick bringing pops into the southwest early and
therefore have slowed onset until afternoon. Pops increase late in
the day into Tuesday evening with high chance pops across eastern
Indiana and western Ohio. A threat for heavy rain and flooding will
develop with PWats increasing to 2+ inches late in the day into
Tuesday night. Will continue to keep the mention of locally heavy
rain/flooding potential in the HWO to account for this potential.

High temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s to
around 90 with lows Tuesday night generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current warm and humid conditions continue through the extended
period. While strong troughs and fronts remain absent during this
summer pattern, weak impulses (many the result of meso scale
convective features) will be all that it takes to trigger convection
in our area. This results in model uncertainty as far as exact timing
and location of precipitation. Main weather threat will continue to
be localized flooding in areas receiving repeated rounds of
thunderstorms from day to day.

For Wednesday, latest guidance shows the potential for a convective
complex moving through the lower Great Lakes. After a brief respite
Wednesday night, a northern stream disturbance will begin to
compress the mid-level ridge over the southern United States. An
accompanying cold front will aid in a more widespread coverage of
convection Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Ensemble guidance keeps this pattern going through the weekend as
minor shortwaves move along zonal flow and a weak stationary
boundary possibly located near our area. Details are uncertain at
this time range, so stayed with the National Blend of Models and its
high chances of showers each day. Additional updates are expected as
details come into better focus moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thunderstorm complex that produced widespread showers and
thunderstorms have shifted east of the area. Weak front stalls out
and deeper moisture suppressed slightly south as drier air moves
into northern Ohio. Moderate instability along with the weak front
draped across northern KY and south central Ohio will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Most of this
activity will stay southeast of the TAF sites. Have limited any
mention to prob 30 at KCMH and KLCK.

As mid level ridge builds into the area later today into tonight
expect a general lull in pcpn activity. Light winds, combined with
lingering low level moisture will lead to fog development across
portions of the area overnight. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at KCVG,
KCMH, and KLCK with IFR restrictions at KILN and KLUK. The fog
improves quickly Tuesday morning with VFR cumulus clouds developing.
Focus shifts to a shortwave that rides the back of the ridge offering
a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Have a prob 30 at 30 hour KCVG TAF sites after 21Z to account for
this threat.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR