551
FXUS61 KILN 021114
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
614 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak mid level disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley will
lead to occasional light shower activity today. More widespread rain
is expected on Wednesday as a stronger upper level disturbance moves
through the region.

2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region
late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to more
seasonable temperatures and occasional chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
The mid level short wave will continue to push east across the upper
Ohio Valley through early afternoon. Fairly widespread light
precipitation associated with this will continue through much of the
morning before beginning to taper off this afternoon as the short
wave moves off to the east. Highs today will be in the low to mid
60s.

An upper level trough axis will move out of the Plains on Tuesday
and into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the day on
Wednesday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this will lead to
decent moisture advection up into our region beginning late Tuesday
night and continuing into Wednesday, with fairly widespread shower
activity overspreading the Ohio Valley region. With any instability
limited at best, expect the thunder threat to be on the low side with
the precipitation on Wednesday. Precipitation will then taper off
from the west heading into Wednesday night as the trough axis shifts
eastward.

Key message 2)
A series of mid level short waves will rotate down across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region as we head into the weekend.
Timing/placement and strength of these vary though between the
models so there is some uncertainty in pcpn chances and timing
through the second half of the long term period and will generally
just have some lower end pops going. Some cooler air will filter down
into the area though, so we will see a return to more seasonable
temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys due to drizzle and br will persist
through much of the morning. Conditions will begin to improve as we
head into the afternoon and the mid level short wave shifts off to
our east. Cigs will lift into MVFR for this afternoon and then VFR
tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL