664
FXUS61 KILN 182313
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
713 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a mention for storm potential on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions today. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow
as a cold front moves through the area.

2) Additional rounds of storms expected on Saturday with another
cold front sweeping through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Quiet weather persists today with the presence of high pressure.
Main feature to monitor tonight will be fog development, primarily
in portions of the Scioto Valley and north-central KY. These
locations are where mid level clouds will be less disruptive to fog
development.

A cold front will continue sink southward from the Great Lakes region
tomorrow. The combination of the frontal boundary and a series of
shortwaves rippling through will result in scattered shower/storm
development. Initial storm development is expected near the I-70
corridor, primarily late afternoon/evening. Additional convection
will spawn farther south and continue overnight. The parameter space
for severe potential is not overly impressive. ML tools also not
showing much (if any) severe probs in our CWA. However, there are
some signals that indicate an isolated flood risk exists given the
high PWATs near 1.75", deeply saturated sounding profiles and
efficient, warm rain processes. CAMs struggling to hone in on exact
areas of concern, but it would appear that locations near I-70 would
primarily have these heavy rain concerns during the afternoon and
evening, while locations farther south would be more of an overnight
threat. Would likely need multiple rounds of storms to induce a hydro
concern, but cannot rule out this potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Model guidance has been fairly consistent in a signal for shower and
thunderstorm activity on Saturday. Latest timing would suggest that
the bulk of the convective activity will be during the daytime hours.
The cold front that is helping to initialize this activity appears
to be fairly progressive, so this should help limit the threat for
heavy rain. Still a bit early to delve into the severe parameter
details, but this system is worth monitoring as plenty of instability
will be around on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will be met over all of the terminals until a brief
period tomorrow afternoon, generally between 18Z and 22Z, where
shower potential increases. In these showers and possibly a few hours
before hand, MVFR cigs are expected, and during the showers MVFR
vsbys should also be found.

After these showers pass through, ovc mid-high cloud cover 10-18kft
is expected. One caveat here is that some thunder is possible as this
line of showers moves south, but not enough of a signal for me to
include in the terminals.

Light wind from the south-southwest will be found until a little
before daybreak when they pick up from the southwest 6-7kt, and max
out in the afternoon 8-10kt, turning a little more west-southwest.

Continued the fog potential at KLUK though narrowed the timing down
from four hours to two, centered around daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...Franks