928
FXUS61 KILN 162337
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
737 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch issued tonight and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity continue through Thursday, with occasional
chances for storms through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)


The center of a large mid level ridge remains over the TN Valley
this evening. ILN/s area is in the warm and moist airmass with PWAT
values around 2 inches. The primary threat tonight will continue to
be heavy rain. Also, model solutions suggest that a 8H low level jet
around 30 kts will act to generate a potential MCS. This complex will
likely develop into west central Ohio late tonight and move thru the
area Thursday morning. The exact placement of this feature is
somewhat uncertain but the most likely location is along and north of
the I-70 corridor. HREF LPMM suggest that the potential exists for
swaths of 2 to 4 inches with locally up to 5 inches thru Thursday.
This area has received heavy rain last night. This lines up with WPC
forecast area in slight risk of excessive rainfall today and marginal
risk on Thursday. Will issue a flood watch for potential flash
flooding overnight into Thursday.

The northern portion of the mid level ridge breaks down as the center
of the high retrogrades west across the Lower MS Valley into the
Southern Plains on Friday. This will allow the surface front to shift
south into the Ohio Valley, lowering max temps, but increasing
precipitation chances across the south prior to ending. A brief
respite in rain will exist later Friday into early Saturday with
additional rain expected Saturday night and Sunday. Forecast
confidence becomes lower in any specifics this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While we have seen some weakening in the storms moving east of DAY,
guidance shows some scattered development remains possible for the
Columbus terminals before 03Z. Therefore, will keep the potential in
for those sites before midnight.

After this evening`s showers and storms weaken and move off to the
east, additional storm development is possible later tonight. Have
continued to include this in the TAF sites north of the Cincinnati
area. With uncertainty in the exact placement of this convection,
have held at PROB30 for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday afternoon
     for INZ050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...04