Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
586 FXUS61 KILN 302257 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 657 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through Monday. Some showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front. Unseasonably cool temperatures will return late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cumulus field across northern counties will dissipate with loss of heating. Only expect a bit of thin high clouds overnight. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep light northeast flow. Lows will be 10 degrees or more below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sprawling surface high will remain centered north of the region through the period. With a dry airmass in place, there will be little in the way of clouds except perhaps a bit of diurnal cumulus. Temperatures will remain below normal with a fairly broad diurnal range. Readings are forecast to end up maybe a few degrees warmer than persistence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak closed low over the mid Atlantic in the base of a persistent long wave trough at the beginning of the period will get shunted northeast as new energy dives into the base of the long wave, carving out another deep anomaly. Initial short wave dropping through the Plains will then round the base of the trough through the Tennessee Valley. This will induce an inverted trough at the surface that will extend northwards into the region which will be a focus for moisture return. There is some potential for showers to develop into southern counties on Tuesday afternoon, but a better chance exists for Wednesday as much of the ensemble suite forecasts generate precipitation by that point. Robust short wave coming out of central Canada will deepen into a closed low in the western Great Lakes, although there remains some uncertainty in amplitude and location. This system will drive a surface cold front southeast, at this point most likely crossing the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More showers will occur out ahead of the front. 500 mb height anomalies greater than three sigma will occur across the Great Lakes and lower to mid Ohio Valley late in the week but then relax heading into the end of the period as the closed low lifts northeast but the deep troughing persists. Surface high pressure will build into the region for the end of the week in the wake of the cold front. This will bring another period of much below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly clear skies will prevail overnight. As we decouple, some patchy valley fog may affect KLUK late tonight so will allow for a tempo MVFR vsby restriction there. Otherwise, expect just a few cu across the region again during the day on Sunday with VFR conditions prevailing. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL