Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
809 FXUS61 KILN 021600 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the central Appalacians through mid Atlantic will keep mostly dry conditions across the middle Ohio Valley into midweek. A good chance of rain will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front pushes through the region. Well below normal temperatures will return behind the front late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main jet stream along with our storm track remains across the Deep South into the western Atlantic Ocean under a persistent long wave trough. This, along with surface high pressure just off to our east, will keep most of our area dry through the near term period. Can`t rule out a stray shower well south of the Ohio River this afternoon due to modest instability ahead of weak low pressure centered near Memphis, TN. Temperatures will run near- to below-normal due to cool morning lows in the middle to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Strong mid- and upper-level low will begin to dig southeast into the Upper Midwest Wednesday, then east into the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday night. Associated surface low and cold front will turn winds to the south across the Ohio Valley and will provide our area with a band of precipitable water values exceeding one inch starting around midnight Wednesday night. It appears precipitation will be rather widespread, with QPF nearing or perhaps exceeding one-quarter inch late Wednesday night. Temperatures in the mild southerly flow will top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will be progressing through the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are likely to occur along and ahead of the front. Instability appears limited since FROPA occurs before the late afternoon hours. Winds shift to the northwest behind the front which helps temperatures and dew points drop during the second half of the day. Thursday night should remain dry with forecast lows mostly in the lower 50s. Winds quickly shift back to the southwest on Friday as a second cold front moves in from the northwest. Southwesterly flow allows for a brief spike in temperatures and humidity ahead of the front. Friday will also be the first day in some time that the winds are notable. Wind gusts could approach 25 mph across the area Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens around a low to north. Showers and storms are possible once again ahead of the second front before ending after FROPA sometime Friday night/Saturday morning. High pressure builds across the Ohio Valley for the weekend into the start of next week. Temperatures remain below average through at least Monday. For the middle of next week, a warming trend is likely and rain chances start returning to the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will remain favorable during the TAF period as our terminals remain on the western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the central Appalachians. Mid and high clouds will increase late ahead of a digging system over the Upper Midwest... but precipitation is likely to hold off until after the 30-hour TAF window. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...