053
FXUS61 KILN 131048
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
648 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms expected today, with a marginal risk of severe
weather.

2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the
middle part of next week, along with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Update (315 AM) >

As visibilities have continued to deteriorate, a Dense Fog Advisory
has been issued for the entire ILN CWA through 10AM.

Previous discussion (259 AM) >

Copious low level moisture is leading to widespread stratus
development early this morning, along with some patchy dense fog. A
dense fog advisory may be needed, though the stratus deck has been
the more consistent story so far, with surface visibilities varying
from 1/4SM to 1SM.

A surface cold front currently entering Michigan and Indiana will
then move southeast into the area this afternoon. As the ILN CWA
remains well ahead of the front in the warm sector, temperatures will
rise into the lower to upper 80s, producing 1500 to maybe 2500 J/kg
of SBCAPE. Westerly wind flow aloft will be increasing going into the
afternoon, with up to 50 knots at 500mb in the northern sections of
the ILN CWA. Though forcing with the front does not appear overly
strong, this combination will allow for a band of scattered storms to
develop during the afternoon, primarily near or after 3PM. The
parameter space supports a marginal severe threat, though extremely
poor directional shear and somewhat limited storm coverage will
preclude a more organized severe risk.

To note, the northwestern-most ILN counties (Wayne IN through Hardin
OH) will likely remain dry, with storm initiation occurring after
the front has passed.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

With the frontal boundary well south of the region on Monday, and
high pressure settling in over the Great Lakes, dry conditions are
expected for the ILN CWA on Monday. This will also be the coolest day
of the period, with highs only in the 70s for most of the forecast
area.

A larger shift to the weather pattern is expected to begin Tuesday,
with strong ridging (or even a closed high) setting up over the
southeastern states. The main storm track and frontal zone will
remain north of the ILN CWA to begin on Tuesday, but will shift
southward as the ridge breaks down. Not out of the question that some
storms could get into the northern ILN CWA on Tuesday afternoon and
evening, though chances will increase on Wednesday and Thursday as
the overall frontal zone (and the mid-level ridge) both collapse
slightly southward. For locations that remain south of the storms and
the front, temperatures may get quite warm, with highs in the mid
80s to near 90 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected this morning, with the main story being
the continued reduced visibilities and ceilings. Conditions are a mix
of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR, with some dense fog occurring along with
stratus. These conditions will continue for the next several hours,
before improving late this morning.

Showers and storms are expected to develop during the afternoon, and
PROB30 groups have been included for this. If confidence increases,
this may be switched to a TEMPO group. VFR conditions are expected
after that.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos