Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
454 FXUS61 KILN 161833 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 233 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur today. Locally heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms will be possible. 2) A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight into Monday with another cold front moving through Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Active weather pattern continues as an embedded MCV in the westerlies tracks across Ohio. This MCV combined with moderate instability was leading to strong storms across central Ohio. With high PWAT values there may still be some locally heavy rain, but the flooding threat looks to be more isolated. Some of the more robust storms could produce strong to damaging winds across portions of central Ohio prior to pushing east of ILN/s area in the next hour or so. KEY MESSAGE 2) Low amplitude short wave will push a cold front into the area late tonight. Due to the orientation of the front from north-northeast to south-southwest it will be slow to move through the region. The potential for showers and storms will persist until this front clears. Some CAM solutions show better focus for storms across the southern counties late tonight into Monday morning. Pattern changes as broad long wave trough will move into the Great Lakes toward mid week. This will push another cold front through the region Wednesday night. Expect a change in air mass with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An embedded MCV in the westerlies tracking across Ohio interacting with moderate instability was leading to storms across central Ohio. With pre-frontal trof shifting southeast storm coverage is expected to diminish late in the day. A short wave will push a slow moving cold front into the area late tonight. The potential for showers and storms will persist until this front clears. Some CAM solutions show better focus for storms across the southern counties late tonight into Monday morning. Have a PROB30 mention for when the best threat exists. MVFR ceilings will likely develop late tonight and persist into Monday morning. Expect a return to VFR during the afternoon. OUTLOOK..MVFR to IFR conditions possible in fog Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...AR