176
FXUS61 KILN 211023
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
623 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday
as another cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Areas of fog will develop through the predawn hours, especially in
the river valleys across our south and east. The fog will burn off
through mid morning, with quieter conditions expected through the
rest of the day.

Some mid level energy moving across the Great Lakes tonight will
help deepen the trough over the region through the day on Saturday as
a secondary short wave pivots through the mid Ohio Valley Saturday
into Saturday night. As we destabilize ahead of this, MLCapes will
push into the 1500-2000 J/KG range through the afternoon on Saturday.
As a result, expect scattered shower and thunderstorm development as
we head into the afternoon, with this activity shifting east across
our area through late afternoon and early evening. Increasing mid
level flow will allow for marginal deep layer shear of 20-30 knots,
so a few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
into early evening. The main threat will be isolated damaging wind
gusts, but some cooler air moving in aloft may also support some hail
in the stronger updrafts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of fog will improve through mid morning with sct to bkn VFR cu
developing as we head into the afternoon. These will dissipate early
this this evening. Light winds tonight will again allow for areas of
mainly river valley fog to develop through the pre dawn hours.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL