Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
524 FXUS61 KILN 132317 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 717 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Friday. A strong storm system will bring rain and gusty winds to the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Dry conditions are expected through tonight. River valley fog is expected again tonight. In addition, expect some fog generally near and north of Interstate 70. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions will continue through the short term. High temperatures in the 70s are expected and lows in the 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The first half of the long term period will feature quiet and seasonably mild conditions across the region. A reinforcing dose of cooler/drier air will push in from the N on Wednesday with the passage of a weak cold front, with daily highs/lows for the end of the workweek a bit closer to normal. Abundant sunshine is on tap from Wednesday through Friday, with daily highs within a few degrees of the 70-degree mark. The main item of interest through the end of the workweek will be the potential for some patchy frost, particularly Friday morning in rural/sheltered locales of central OH through south-central OH and NE KY. Confidence is not yet high enough to highlight in the HWO, but will mention it here for awareness purposes. Lows on Thursday morning will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s, with similar conditions again Friday morning. Coolest temps should evolve in rural/sheltered locales across the ern half of the ILN FA Friday morning. As we progress into this weekend, the overall weather pattern will begin to change rather quickly, with the midlevel ridge axis breaking down as it shifts to the E through the OH Vly into the NE CONUS by early Saturday morning. This will occur as a longwave trof pivots into the central CONUS by Friday into early Saturday, with broad/deep SW flow quickly becoming established from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly. Robust moisture advection will be ongoing locally by Saturday, with the expectation for one or more bands of SHRA (with some TSRA possible) likely to move through the local area within the time frame of late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday afternoon. Still some specifics to be worked out regarding the timing, but the overall pattern (overlap of robust moisture/forcing/lift) favors widespread showers (with a few storms possible) locally during this stretch. PWs will soar to near 200% of seasonal norms by Saturday as deep- layer moisture streams into the region amidst strong deep-layer wind fields. The influx of this deep moisture-rich air means that lapse rates within the ILN FA are likely to be somewhat poor and therefore unsupportive of stronger storm development/maintenance, particularly through the daytime Saturday. The saturated environment may inhibit the strong/severe storm potential, with any local threat likely to be spatially/temporally limited Saturday night (should it evolve at all). The better LL/midlevel lapse rates (and thus higher instby) positioned further to SW across the mid MS Rvr Vly suggests that the severe threat with this system should be greatest to the SW of the immediate local area. However, details regarding the evolution of the thermodynamic environment from late Saturday through early Sunday will come into better focus in the coming days, so this setup will be monitored closely for any changes (especially considering the strong wind fields/shear that will be in place). Although PWs will be /well/ above seasonal norms Saturday through early Sunday, the system should remain fairly progressive, meaning that widespread heavy rain is not a big concern at this juncture. Certainly some isolated pockets of 2" could occur if convection becomes more robust/widespread, but most locales will see around an inch or less by the time the rain comes to an end Sunday afternoon. The bulk of this rain should occur Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday will reach into the mid/upper 70s ahead of the rain expected to move in during the latter part of the daytime. Temps on Sunday will be considerably cooler with widespread clouds and early-day rain/storms, followed by the FROPA. Daytime temps will reach into the mid/upper 60s both Sunday and Monday, with a trend toward drier conditions once again for the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Only a few mid clouds drifting across the region to start. There is a signal that some stratus could develop into the Columbus terminals after 09Z. Confidence is low, so only included a scattered deck, but it is certainly possible that an MVFR ceiling could occur there for a few hours. Elsewhere, there remains the possibility of shallow fog at KLUK to cause some variable visibilities between 08Z and 12Z, although the signal looks less than last night. Beyond that, there will be few to scattered cumulus during the daytime period. Northeast winds will increase to around 10 kt. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...