Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
612 FXUS61 KILN 290439 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1239 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Well above normal temperatures will continue today. A weak cold front will drop southeast across the area tonight, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend. 2) A series of upper level disturbances will result in occasional rain chances through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Southwest low level flow will continue today ahead of a weak cold front dropping down from the northwest. This will lead to the continuation of well above normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture is limited with the cold front tonight, but some of the high res models are trying to produce isolated-scattered light rain showers in an axis of weak instability along and ahead the front across our northwest this evening. Any shower activity will then likely dissipate as the front pushes southeast overnight and we lose the diurnal instability. Weak low level CAA behind the front will lead to a slight cool down with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s in the south and highs on Saturday in the 65 to 70 degree range. KEY MESSAGE 2) There remains some uncertainty with the strength of mid level energy moving into the Ohio Valley through the second half of the weekend and how much moisture will accompany it. The ECMWF and Canadian are pretty weak/dry with the system while the GFS and the tail end of the NAM are trying to bring pcpn in from the southwest through the day on Sunday. As a result, will keep some chances for pcpn Sunday into Sunday night, but confidence is not very high. Models continue to show a more dynamic system approaching from the west through mid next week, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing and strength of this system. As a result, will continue to broad brush chance pops through much of the extended period, with temperatures remaining several degrees above normal through mid week. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mostly clear skies and light winds will likely lead to some river valley fog development through the pre dawn hours. Will allow for some MVFR cigs to account for this at KLUK later this morning. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies to prevail through much of the day. A weak cold front will drop down across the area tonight. This will lead to an increase in clouds this evening, but cigs will remain VFR. A few light showers will also be possible this evening as the front moves into the area, with the best chance for this being along and north of the I-70 corridor. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL