400
FXUS61 KILN 192356
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued for counties near and north of I-70 corridor for
this afternoon into Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop into the area later this
afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure and a cold
front move across the area. Locally heavy rain is possible.

2) Additional storms are expected on Saturday with another cold
front sweeping through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Scattered showers moving into the western portions of our CWA during
the mid afternoon. Limited instability and poor wind shear resulting
in minimal convection, but cannot rule out stray lightning strikes
from this afternoon activity, especially as CAPE values gradually
increase from the west.

Late this evening, a cold front will begin to carve its way south,
slowly progressing through our CWA tonight through early Thursday. A
more robust shortwave trough will accompany this frontal boundary
overnight, which will increase the amount of forcing and overall
convective activity. For several runs now, CAMs have been hinting at
an east-west oriented line of showers/storms developing near the
I-70 corridor late this evening and continuing into the overnight
hours. For some locations, a 4-6 hour period of moderate to heavy
rainfall may ensue. The environment suggests PWATs around 1.6-1.8"
and warm rain processes that will be conducive to heavy rainfall.
Combined with the fact that locations near eastern IN/western OH and
central OH have saturated soils in the 95th-99th percentile range
(according to NASA SPoRT-LIS), a Flood Watch has been issued given
the flash flood risk.

Keep in mind, heavy rainfall may still be possible outside of the
Flood Watch area. While most CAMs have been more progressive with the
heavy rain in our south, portions of the Tristate (esp far southwest
OH) are also particularly vulnerable due to high soil moisture
content. Should storms be more robust and linger a bit longer in near
the Ohio River, localized hydro issues may occur.

Severe potential appears to be very limited today/tonight. It will be
difficult to develop large hail with any storms this
afternoon/evening. Wind shear doesn`t increase until later this
evening, so we could see some stronger gusts overnight, but overall
this threat is expected to remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Shower/storm potential remains for Saturday afternoon and evening
based on latest model guidance. Some deterministic models have been
less robust in overall coverage of pcpn, with the best chances for
storms shifting northwards towards central/western OH and areas
north. Nonetheless, still warrants a mention given that another cold
front will sweep through the Ohio Valley and modest instability is
expected to be in place. Will delve into more details as we get
closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of showers over central OH will move ene. Scattered showers
developing to the west along I-70 to IN and southwest along I-70 to
ILN. These showers will continue to develop and should be scattered
about the entire CWA in the next 1-2 hours. The convection over IN
with some few CG lightning strikes is currently holding together but
is not expected to make it as far to the se as DAY.

Models are in low agreement with how tonight`s scenario plays out,
but most have any precip gone by 09Z. A light VFR shower in the cold
air behind the front may be present in a scattered form given the
cold air working in topped with clear sky cover. Wind will be light
and variable under 6kt for all terminals, though early on it should
be sw-s and then turn nly towards daybreak, mid afternoon at CVG/LUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-074.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ050-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...Franks