Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
241 FXUS61 KILN 031116 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 616 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system moves northeast through the Upper Midwest. 2) An upper level trough will settle into the Great Lakes region late this week and over the weekend. This will lead to more seasonable temperatures and occasional chances for showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) An upper level low pressure system will lift northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday. As it does, an embedded mid level short wave rotating around the broader low will lift northeast into the mid Ohio Valley. This will be accompanied by increasing southerly flow and a developing 40-50 knot 850 mb jet that will shift east across our area late tonight into Wednesday. Good moisture transport will advect into our area with PWs pushing up to around 1.5 inches or so through the day on Wednesday. This should all lead to widespread showers developing later tonight across our southwest/west and then overspreading the rest of our area through Wednesday morning. Pcpn will the continue through the afternoon before tapering off from the west Wednesday night. Some weak instabilities will also be pulled up into our area so a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible, especially across southern portions of our area. Deep layer shear will be strong, but any severe threat should be limited by the lack of better instabilities. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible given the increasing PWs, with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected mainly along and south of the Ohio River. Storm total amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible in spots across our southwest, but given how dry we have been the last few weeks, think the overall flood threat will remain on the low side. Key message 2) We will transition to more of a west to northwest flow pattern aloft later this week and into early next week. A series of mid level short waves dropping down across the Great Lakes will likely lead to occasional lower end chances for showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will trend back to seasonable readings with highs over the weekend and into early next week generally in the 55 to 60 degree range. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Skies have cleared across the area this morning and this has led to some patchy river valley fog. This may affect KLUK early in the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into this evening with mainly just an increase in some mid and high level clouds ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this could lead to some marginal LLWS later tonight/early Wednesday. It will also result in a developing chance for showers from the southwest late tonight with showers then continuing into the day on Wednesday. It will be tough to rule out an isolated thunderstorm too, but chances appear low enough to leave any mention out of the TAFs. As the pcpn moves in later tonight into early Wednesday, cigs and vsbys will drop into MVFR to locally IFR category. Southerly winds will gust to around 20 knots or so at times through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys possible at times into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGL AVIATION...JGL