954
FXUS63 KILX 142319
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
519 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warm temperatures are forecast again tomorrow for
  much of central and southeast Illinois, with highs in the mid
  70s.

- The next opportunity (60-75% chance) for precipitation arrives
  Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. There is a 40-60% chance
  of 0.25 inches of rain south of I-70 During this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A warm front is passing through right now which will allow today and
tomorrow to have near record warmth with highs in the low to mid
70s. This doesn`t last long as a cold front is expected to move
through central Il tomorrow afternoon and evening. This front will
usher in more normal temperatures for the new week. Ahead of the
cold front passage, the pressure gradient will tighten. This will
increase the wind speed overnight, lasting into the late afternoon.
The HREF 14.12z run is showing 60-80% chance of wind gusts greater
than 30 mph starting around 05z (11pm) tonight. That probability
seems high, especially with HREF having a tendency to overestimate
wind gusts, but wouldn`t completely disregard the chance of wind
gusts that high. Saying that, not everyone will see the strongest
(30+ mph) wind gusts, they would be more scattered in nature. In
general though, the strongest gusts will be east of the I-55
corridor but some pockets west of there is still possible at times.
These winds look to begin to relax by 18z (noon) Saturday. This cold
front, however, should pass without any precipitation.

Sunday, a high pressure center passes over. Light winds, dry
weather, and cool temperatures are to be expected. A low pressure
system will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies Sunday. This
low pressure will travel eastward, delivering the next chance of
precipitation to the forecast area Monday. Precipitation type is
looking like rain now. There remains a small chance of snow flurries
with the low passage north of I-74, but has been left out of the
forecast for now due to the high uncertainty. The GFS is much drier
than the Euro with this system. The GFS shows many locations seeing
potentially nothing. The NBM shows a 40-60% chance of 0.25 inches
of rain south of I-70 from this system. Timing looks like Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning.

The more intriguing portion of this forecast comes late next week.
There looks to be another low pressure system that could move
through the Midwest. At this time, it looks like it could pack more
of a punch with the precipitation and maybe even some thunderstorms.
It is a week out, so we will keep an eye on it for now as we make
our way through the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Southwest winds will continue through tonight, becoming elevated
around 06Z as a low-level jet spreads across the area. Cloud cover
will also increase over the next several hours, with the potential
for low stratus to develop around or shortly after 06Z.
Probabilities for ceilings to fall below 3k ft are around 40%, so
kept them above MVFR for now but will monitor upstream observations
ahead of the next TAF issuance. A cold front will then move through
on Saturday, shifting winds from the southwest to northwest by
afternoon. Winds within the vicinity of the front will also be
quite strong with gusts between 20-30 kt.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$