069
FXUS63 KILX 142350
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
650 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues through at least Saturday with maximum
  afternoon heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- Shower and storm chances return late this week with the best
  chances expected on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a rex block in place over a good portion
of the US -- upper ridging over the north-central CONUS and low
pressure positioned equatorward of it. This has resulted in another
period of seasonably warm temperatures and high dewpoints (low
to middle 70s) leading to peak afternoon heat indices around 100
degrees, give or take a few degrees. Similar conditions are
expected to last through at least the first half of the weekend,
though the return of scattered convection later this week could
alleviate the heat for some.

The upper ridge will begin to break down later this week as several
shortwave troughs work through the eastern Canadian provinces, just
north of the Great Lakes. The previously mentioned upper low will
ooze northward in a weakened state beginning Thursday, bringing
just enough forcing to support scattered storms through
Saturday (Friday having the highest chances). With plenty of
moisture in place, moderately strong instability could support a
few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and torrential
downpours. However, weak shear should limit storm longevity and
organization.

Additional opportunities for showers and storms are forecast Sunday
into early next week as a shortwave trough dives through the Great
Lakes Region, sending a cold front south into the area. The front
will stall out over central Illinois before lifting back north on
Monday. Although a subtle reprieve from heat will come for some
Sunday into Monday (northern counties), a more noticeable "cooldown"
closer to our seasonal normals won`t arrive until Tuesday when a
stronger upper wave sends a more progressive cold front through the
area. Normal high temperatures for the middle of July typically
range from the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites overnight and through
tomorrow. However, light fog is possible at some of the sites in
the early morning hours, so have added a TEMPO group for PIA,
BMI, SPI, and CMI for 3-4sm br. Winds will be light and variable
through the period under a dominate high pressure area.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...Auten