312
FXUS63 KILX 061100
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to
  central Illinois today into tomorrow evening. Significant
  drought improvement is not expected.

- Brief dip in the temperatures to near normal (normal highs: low
  70s, normal lows: upper 40s) midweek behind the cold frontal
  passage, before warming back into the 80s during the day for the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The pressure gradient relaxes today, leaving us with much calmer
winds than yesterday, as the cold front progresses eastward. Highs
today will be in the 80s once again, with lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Increased moisture advection from the south ahead of the
cold frontal passage will bring a chance for precipitation to
southeastern IL this afternoon. Timing for this cold front shows it
entering the northwestern counties of the CWA by this evening
(~00z). Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold frontal
passage, lingering into Tuesday. The precipitation should be out of
the area by 00z Wednesday (7pm Tuesday). It looks like with the cold
front precipitation and the precipitation moving north out of
southern IL, there is an area between I-72 and I-70 where there
could be a lull in heavier rainfall.

QPF through Wednesday 00z is showing 0.5-1 inch south of I-70,
upwards of 0.75 inches north of I-72, and less than 0.25 inches
between I-72 and I-70. Some locally higher amounts are possible
where a heftier thunderstorm may pass through. Behind this front,
another period of dry weather sets up for what looks like 5-7 days
as another high pressure scoots in.

Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 70s for highs behind the
front before warming back into the 80s for the weekend. Wednesday
and Thursday will be the coolest days we have seen in quite
awhile, with highs in the low 70s, near 60, and lows in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front will move through the forecast area over the next
36ish hours. Winds will start out of the south today, then will
shift out of the north behind the cold front between 06z and 12z
tonight. They will generally stay around 5-10 knots.

The cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to central IL
today. We can start to see showery activity by midafternoon.
PROB30s were used because of the low to medium confidence of where
they will occur. The activity won`t be widespread, but more
scattered. Where a heftier shower/storm occurs, visibility could
be 4-5SM.

Ceilings are expected to be VFR (clear) for the beginning of the
period. Behind the front, ceilings could drop to IFR to LIFR near
the end of the 12z TAF period.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$