185
FXUS63 KILX 290510
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are no signs over the next week of the warmer weather
  pattern breaking down, with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees
  above normal. There is a 30 to 40 percent chance of high
  temperatures reaching 80 degrees on Thursday near and south of
  I-70.

- While some sprinkles or very light showers will be possible on
  Thursday north of I-72, any significant rain chances are
  likely to hold off until early next week. Best chances of
  seeing more than an inch of rain will be near and west of I-57
  (50-60% chance) Monday through Wednesday.

- While rain chances are expected Saturday morning north of
  I-72, dry conditions are expected for any miscellaneous
  outdoor activities later in the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Skies are mostly sunny across the forecast area early this
afternoon, though some patches of altocumulus were observed west
of the Illinois River. Regional radar mosaics show a few echoes
associated with some weak isentropic lift, now in far west
central Illinois. GOES-East satellite sounding from near Peoria
shows that moisture is pretty sparse below 7,000 feet, so a few
sprinkles are all that is expected.


Short Term (through Halloween):

A shortwave currently over the western Dakotas will lift
northeast into western Ontario by late tonight, with a trailing
surface boundary moving across central Illinois on Thursday.
This boundary will become nearly stationary near or south of
I-70 later Thursday, as it lines up with the upper flow. Some
increase in low level moisture is expected ahead of the front,
as dew points rise into the mid 50s to near 60. Mid-level lapse
rates may be enough to trigger a few showers in the afternoon
toward Bloomington-Danville, though most will be further
northeast. Sprinkles may be more likely over the northern CWA,
though. With the front laying out west-east, there will be more
of a temperature gradient Thursday and Friday, with highs still
near 80 degrees near and south of I-72/Danville Thursday.

Late in the week, the front begins lifting north again as a
shortwave digs over the central Plains. High pressure will still
be feeding drier air in from the east, with any associated
showers most likely near and west of the Illinois River. Rain
chances continue to increase as the wave gets closer, but mostly
will be north of I-72 into Saturday morning. Conditions are
looking dry for outdoor activities late Saturday afternoon into
the evening. While Saturday remains fairly cloudy, temperatures
still will be well above late October normals, with highs mainly
in the lower 70s and evening temperatures in the 60s.


Long Term (Sunday through Wednesday):

A wholesale pattern change will be taking place next week,
providing more opportunities for some needed rainfall. The
synoptic models continue to develop a large, cutoff upper low
over the central Plains early next week, with an associated
surface cyclone intensifying. GFS solutions are the more
intense of the group, while the European solutions are slower
and more influenced by a separate low skirting the northern
border of Minnesota. The latter camp would suggest more dry
weather Sunday and Monday, while the former provides more
numerous rain chances from Sunday all the way through next
Thursday. In any event, this does appear to be the best rain
chances we have seen in some time. Overnight LREF guidance shows
a 50-60% chance of seeing more than an inch of rain in areas
west of I-57, though this has trended down some from the
previous run. The fine details of cutoff lows are always a
challenge to pin down this far in advance, though.

Morning NBM guidance came in warmer for early next week, with
mainly lower 70s for highs, but clouds and rain extent will
probably temper this down somewhat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A cold front positioned over eastern Iowa/southern Wisconsin will
drop south through the area later today. Scattered to broken mid-
level clouds will precede the front through the overnight hours, but
then ceiling heights will lower to 3-5k ft with the frontal passage.
Model guidance suggests the highest chances (60-70%) for MVFR
ceilings will be at KPIA with lower probabilities further east
at remaining airfields. South winds will veer to the west-
southwest by late morning, shift to the northwest behind the
front, and then become northerly by the evening hours.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...NMA