681
FXUS63 KILX 200452
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and patchy fog will once again be a concern tonight
  into early Thursday morning.

- Rain will lift into the region Thursday evening, with the
  highest rainfall totals expected to be south of a Quincy to
  Terre Haute line where there is currently a high (50-80%) chance
  of exceeding 0.50"; source 12z REFS.

- A sharp cold front will push through by the middle of next week,
  likely sending overnight temperatures into the 20s (60-90%
  chance), and perhaps making you reconsider running that turkey
  trot; source 13z NBM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Low stratus and patchy fog are the primary concerns for tonight,
likely reducing visibility once again. This idea is supported by
the synoptic pattern, which features low-level warm advection and
mid-level shortwave energy interacting with a sharpening 925-850
mb baroclinic zone. Occasional sprinkles cannot be ruled out later
tonight, either, especially as cloud ice nuclei return. QPF
appears limited to a couple hundredths or less in any one spot,
though.

A brief period of subsidence then works into west central and
southwest Illinois Thursday morning ahead of the next frontal
system, which will pivot out of the southern Plains and into our
area Thursday evening into Friday. While clouds are unlikely to
scatter out, we should see ceilings lift quite a bit throughout
Thursday morning.

Rain is expected to move into our region later Thursday evening.
However, uncertainty exists regarding the northern extent of this
rain, mainly due to the influence of dry air pushing down from the
Upper Midwest. And to that point, QPF also remains somewhat
uncertain. The highest amounts appear to favor areas south of a
Quincy-to-Terre Haute line, where convective chances are also
highest. Leaning on the latest REFS LPMM QPF output, something in
the realm of 0.25" - 1.5" seems reasonable, with amounts quickly
tapering off to 0.10" or less north of such a line.

Dry and mild weather shall return by the weekend as the frontal
system departs and high pressure builds across the central US.
Afternoon temperatures look on track to warm into the mid-to-upper
50s each Sunday and Monday as low-level warm advection occurs
beneath an amplifying ridge axis.

Attention then turns to the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe as yet
another frontal system ejects out of the southern Plains and lifts
across our area. Convective chances and moisture return ahead of
the system look limited, perhaps tamping down QPF in the 0.1"-0.5"
range. The bigger story with this frontal system will be the
whipsawing temperatures, with a sharp cold front expected to move
through on Wednesday, ushering in blustery north winds and causing
overnight lows to bottom-out in the 20s for your early morning
turkey trot.

MJA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Ceilings continue to slowly lower across central Illinois late
this evening...with 04z/10pm obs showing IFR conditions at all
sites except KPIA. With low stratus spreading N/NW, think KPIA
will lower to IFR at KPIA by around 09z. Visby forecast will be
challenging overnight, as low clouds will prevent dense fog
development...but think there will be pockets of 1 mile visbys at
times. The lowest visbys have thus far been focused along/north of
I-74 from KBMI to KCMI...and think this trend will continue
through daybreak. 1-3 mile fog will persist across the entire area
through 15z before gradually dissipating toward midday. Despite
the visby improvements, low clouds will persist through the
remainder of the 06z TAF period...although an improvement to MVFR
is expected during the afternoon as S winds at 5-10kt provide
adequate mixing.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$