593
FXUS63 KILX 011845
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
145 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of widespread rain will track across the
  region through Friday morning. Broad rainfall totals around
  one inch are expected, though localized heavy rain bands could
  produce isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches.

- Temperatures drop significantly heading into the weekend,
  with highs from the mid 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday,
  and overnight lows falling into the 40s.

- Dry conditions and seasonably cool temperatures look to
  continue next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front located near the Mississippi River this afternoon will
continue to shift eastward overnight as an upper level trough over
the region progresses eastward, ingesting an upper level low and
remnant moisture from former tropical system Polo. 12Z soundings in
the southern Plains reflect over 2 inches of precipitable water,
which lends credence to localized accumulations of rainfall of
2 to 4 inches shown in a few high-res models by Friday morning.
Amounts of this range would require nearly stationary corridors
of multiple rounds of showers or thunderstorms (training).
Nevertheless, most areas can expect one half to one inch
amounts. A few thunderstorms will also be possible through
tonight given low values of CAPE forecast, although recently
have not detected any lightning from showers around the IL River
and westward.

Precipitation should come to an end by sunrise from I-55
northwestward, but could linger past noon from I-70 southward.
Nevertheless, dry conditions will be in place across the area by
Friday night as high pressure builds into the region from the
northwest. High pressure will remain dominant through next week,
although a few dry cold fronts could modulate temperatures.
Highs should reach only mid 60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday,
warm a bit for Sunday with lower to mid 70s, then cool back to
around 70 for Monday and Tuesday following a front Sunday.
Temperatures warm a bit Wednesday and Thursday to mid and upper 70s.
After lows still fairly mild in much of the area tonight, with upper
50s to mid 60s east of I-55 and lower to mid 50s to the west, lows
should generally be seasonably cool with 40s to around 50 the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

MVFR conditions and occasional IFR will develop by 18Z-00Z
across the central IL terminals as a cold front and multiple
upper level disturbances bring widespread rain to the area into
tonight. Conditions look to begin improving at KPIA around 08Z
and at KDEC and KCMI around 15Z as the cold front pushes off to
the east. Winds SW 10-15 kts with a few gusts over 20 kts this
afternoon, decreasing and shifting to N 8-12 kts by 00Z-06Z. N
winds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts by
12Z-15Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...37