487
FXUS63 KILX 301815
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
115 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild weather will dominate the area through early next
  week.

- A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday, bringing
  a chance of showers and storms. Well below normal temperatures
  are expected for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A narrow zone of weak low level convergence stretched from east
central IA southeast through west central IL early this afternoon.
Dew points were a few degrees high in this area, and a few spotty
showers have been observed today. These should diminish by early
evening, primarily affecting areas southwest of Springfield with
10-20% coverage.

Otherwise a large and nearly stationary area of high pressure
over the Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature that
will control our weather pattern through early next week. This
will produce a persistent light easterly low level flow, keeping
dew points and temperatures at mild levels for late summer.

By early next week, global models show strong agreement that upper
level ridging will amplify over western Canada, ejecting a deep
trough from northern Canada towards the Great Lakes. This looks to
drive a strong cold front through the Midwest on Wednesday.
Meager low level moisture return ahead of the front should
preclude a severe weather risk, however stronger forcing suggest
some storms along with a band of scattered showers along and
behind the front for Wed PM.

Strong cold advection in the post-frontal airmass will usher in a
much colder airmass for Thu-Fri. Deterministic models show 850 mb
temperatures dropping to +2-5C late week, and the NBM has
consistently shown highs in the 60s Thu, and mid 40s lows Thu
night. If these numbers verify they would only be a few degrees
above record lows for the date. After a chilly end to the week,
medium range guidance shows the upper trough quickly shifting east
next weekend allowing for quick thermal moderation.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR this forecast cycle with scattered mid to high clouds and
light east winds. An isolated light shower can`t be ruled out this
afternoon, but odds of a terminal being impacted are less than
10%.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$