


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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736 FXUS63 KILX 151049 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 549 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm and mostly dry weather sticks around through Friday. - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday night through Saturday night. This will bring beneficial rainfall as well as a threat for severe weather on Saturday near and south of I-72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Surface high pressure is centered over the western Great Lakes Region early this morning with ridging extending south of there through a good portion of the central US. An ill defined cold/stationary front remains draped over the area, which will keep cloud cover persistent for most through tonight. Radar mosaic shows isolated to scattered shower activity ongoing over north-central parts of the state where weak upper forcing ripples through an upper ridge aloft. Although better chances for rain will stay north of here, a few brief showers (<15% chance) may clip areas near and north of I-74 today. Seasonably warm and mostly dry weather will continue through the end of the week with a pattern change coming by the weekend. A strong upper low positioned over the southwest US this morning will eject into the Northern Plains Thursday night, sending an attendant surface low toward the Hudson Bay by the weekend. A trailing cold front will work through central Illinois sometime on Saturday, bringing beneficial rainfall and perhaps some strong to severe storms. Somewhat better agreement amongst models shows the front approaching west-central parts of the state by midday, which would favor moderate instability building out ahead of the front by Saturday afternoon (up to 1000 J/kg) in a strongly sheared environment (0-6 km over 50 kt). If these parameters are realized, we could see strong to severe storms develop Saturday afternoon and evening, especially near/south of I-72 where SPC has a 15% risk. Beneficial and at times heavy rainfall is also expected with the weekend storms. Climatologically high PWATS exceeding 1.5" and mean flow nearly parallel to the front would support training thunderstorms capable of high rainfall rates. Rainfall probabilities have come up a bit with a 30-50% chance for 1" or more areawide and about a 10-20% chance of over 2" (highest in southeast IL). Shower activity may linger into Sunday as lapse rates steepen in breezy northwest flow behind the front. Temperatures cool back near seasonal normals behind the weekend system, with highs through early next week topping out in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Additional chances for rain are possible by the middle of next week under a more progressive upper pattern. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Persistent cloud cover continues as several weak upper disturbances interact with a stationary front. Ceilings will fluctuate some with bases ranging from 5-9k ft. Although better chances for precipitation will stay north of the airfields, there is a low chance (<15%) for an isolated shower at northern terminals later this morning/afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the east-northeast with speeds at 10 kts or less. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$