114
FXUS63 KILX 130742
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
142 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple days of unseasonably warm highs in the 70s are on tap
  for Friday and Saturday, though potential for record highs
  appear to be fairly limited. Chances for highs over 75 degrees
  will be highest on Saturday, south of I-72 (40-50%).

- The primary chance of rain will be early next week, though
  expected amounts will do little to break the ongoing drought.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Main forecast concerns for this package are the unseasonably warm
weather to close out the week, and the timing of rain chances
early next week.

The upper level pattern early this morning shows significant
ridging across the Rockies. This is projected to steadily move
eastward the next couple days, and should be over the Plains by
early Friday. LREF guidance shows 850 mb temperatures near
climatological maximums over our area by early Saturday, in the
16-17C range. High temperatures should reach in the 70s over much
of the forecast area Friday and Saturday, with the NBM giving
about a 40-50% chance of 75+ degrees south of I-72 on Saturday. Of
the longer term climate record sites, record highs may just be
out of reach.

The ridge will be shunted off to the east on Saturday, as a strong
upper low digs southeast out of northern Manitoba. While the
associated cold front crosses our area on Saturday, it should be a
dry front with limited moisture, though a few ensemble members
suggest a low potential for showers as the front is exiting the
forecast area Saturday evening.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ridge, a series of upper lows
will drop southeast off the California coast into early next week.
The first of these will eject a piece of energy northeast toward
the Colorado/Wyoming area by early Monday, helping a surface
system develop over the Plains. While the general trend has been
for precipitation chances to increase eastward along the
associated warm front, a fair amount of ensemble members continue
to trend with a slower progression of this rain. It`s appearing
more likely that Monday will be dry in much of the area except
near west central Illinois. Monday night remains the most favored
time for rain, with likely PoP`s (around 60%) continuing. With a
decent easterly flow into our area ahead of this system, rainfall
amounts don`t look overly impressive, with LREF probabilities of
more than 1/4 inch of rain only around 30-35%.

Temperatures return to near normal following Saturday`s frontal
passage, with highs in the 50s prevailing Sunday through
Wednesday.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

High pressure ridging will keep winds light and variable overnight.
Winds will gradually turn southerly by Thursday afternoon as the
surface ridge pushes east of here. Scattered to broken cirrus will
be common through the period, but otherwise VFR conditions are
expected.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$