161
FXUS63 KILX 300355
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
955 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and cold weather will dominate the region on Sunday.

- Another weaker system will spread snow into the region late
  Monday, resulting in additional light accumulations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The upper level wave that brought heavy snow accumulations to much
of the CWA north of I-70 today, was pushing into the Great Lakes
this evening. Last of the lingering snow and rain showers will
exit the northeast CWA over the next couple hours. Surface low
pressure currently entering northwest IL will deepen tonight as it
tracks into the lower Great Lakes. This will veer winds westerly
and in a tightening MSLP gradient south of the low, gusts will
likely surge again to 30-35 mph after midnight. Resulting cold
advection will push lows to the lower 20s, freezing any water that
results from the melting/compaction ongoing this evening. With the
quick exit of the system and limited potential for blowing snow
given the ongoing compaction, have canceled all winter weather
headlines early.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As of 1930z/130pm, widespread snow continues to fall across all of
central Illinois along and north of the I-70 corridor. The snow
has become moderate to heavy at times...with a cluster of
convection noted in the Springfield/Lincoln/Decatur vicinities. As
a vigorous short-wave trough noted on water vapor imagery over
eastern Missouri pivots northeastward, am expecting the heavy snow
and isolated thunder to spread into the Champaign/Danville areas
over the next couple of hours. Based on radar trends and the
latest CAM data, it appears the heaviest precipitation will
diminish from southwest to northeast between 20z/3pm and 01z/7pm.
As surface temps slowly edge upward, the snow will mix with and/or
change to a brief period of light rain early this evening before
all precip lifts N/NE out of central Illinois by midnight. Storm
total snowfall of 6-10 inches still looks to be on target for the
bulk of central Illinois north of I-70...with isolated higher
amounts along/southwest of a Macomb to Springfield line where a
band of moderate to heavy snow got started much earlier this
morning. Further south, 2-4 inches is expected along I-70...with
light amounts under 1 inch south of there.

Once low pressure lifts into the Great Lakes and a cold front is
pulled through the region, winds will veer to the northwest
tonight. Am expecting wind gusts of 25-35mph from late tonight
into Sunday morning, which will result in some blowing/drifting of
the freshly fallen snow...particularly where temps remain at or
below freezing this evening and the snow surface does not become
crusty. This is most likely along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line. Despite FROPA and an end to the precip, skies
will remain cloudy through Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will only
reach the middle to upper 20s, while overnight lows dip into the
teens.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The next system of interest will quickly skirt through the region
on Monday...bringing a period of light snow from Monday afternoon
through Monday night. This will be a much weaker wave than the
current one and deep-layer moisture will be considerably less:
however, a light accumulation appears likely. The 12z NBM
indicates a 70-90% chance of greater than 1 inch of snow
along/north of a Taylorville to Paris line...with a 40-60% chance
of more than 3 inches. Stay tuned for further details over the
next few forecast cycles. After that, a cold and mainly dry week
is expected. High temperatures will remain well below normal in
the 20s and 30s...with Thursday being the coldest day when highs
hover in the lower to middle 20s and overnight lows plunge into
the single digits and teens.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 955 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

LIFR ceilings will rise to IFR over the next few hours as a cold
front sweeps east of the terminals. This will cause southwest
winds to veer west overnight and increase gusts to 25-30 kt. These
gusts will continue through Sunday morning, then gradually
diminish during the afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to rise to
MVFR late tonight into Sunday morning then persist through 00z.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$