


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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082 FXUS63 KILX 140805 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next best chance for meaningful rainfall comes this weekend. There is a 50-60% chance for rain amounts exceeding half an inch. - There is a conditional threat for severe weather on Saturday, with the focus being south of I-72. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Early morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front stretched from northern Michigan southwestward through north-central Illinois and crossing the Mississippi River into northern Missouri. Low to mid-level stratus is in place along the front, keeping temperatures milder this morning especially in west-central parts of the state. Clearer skies are more common over eastern/southeast Illinois which has allowed temperatures to cool into the 50s. The front will be nearly stationary over central Illinois through Wednesday, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies through then. A weak upper disturbance will work into the Upper Midwest states and glide across the front tonight, sparking a few isolated showers north of a Macomb to Bloomington line. By midweek, the front will start it`s slow exit out of the area as surface high pressure settles into the upper Great Lakes Region. Temperatures through the remainder of the week will be seasonally warm with daytime highs in the 70s to low 80s. Surface ridging will nudge east of here by Friday as a strong upper low lifts into the north-central CONUS this weekend. A cold front will approach from the west late Friday night, with better moisture advecting northward out ahead of it. Showers and thunderstorms will be common with FROPA and also pose a conditional threat for severe storms Saturday afternoon or evening. Exact timing of the front still remains unclear with the GFS favoring a faster passage as opposed to the slower ECMWF. Timing of the front will largely drive the threat for severe weather, with a slower passage resulting in more time for instability to build. 0-6 km wind shear is expected to be over 50 kts, which would be more than enough to sustain storm organization. Rainfall amounts look to be beneficial, though should only be a small step toward easing ongoing drought conditions. The NBM probabilities still show about a 50-60% chance for 0.5" or more of rainfall areawide, with higher end amounts looking to be focused south of I-70 where there is a 30-40% chance of 1" or more. Temperatures cool back near seasonal normals behind the weekend system, with highs on both Sunday and Monday looking to peak in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Additional chances for rain look possible by the middle parts of next week as the upper pattern remains more progressive. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 An ill defined and slow moving frontal boundary has resulted in numerous clouds around FL050 to FL070 early this morning. Though there are a few breaks which could theoretically allow patchy fog formation from roughly 09-13z/4-8am CDT, HREF and NBM each suggest chances for MVFR (or lower) visibilities is less than 10% and so confidence was too low to justify a mention in the TAFs. Winds will remain light (less than 8-10 kt) and somewhat shifty, especially this morning, but the direction will be some variation of northeasterly through 06z/1am CDT Wednesday. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$