082
FXUS63 KILX 140805
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
305 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - The next best chance for meaningful rainfall comes this
   weekend. There is a 50-60% chance for rain amounts exceeding
   half an inch.

 - There is a conditional threat for severe weather on Saturday,
   with the focus being south of I-72.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Early morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front stretched
from northern Michigan southwestward through north-central Illinois
and crossing the Mississippi River into northern Missouri. Low to
mid-level stratus is in place along the front, keeping temperatures
milder this morning especially in west-central parts of the
state. Clearer skies are more common over eastern/southeast
Illinois which has allowed temperatures to cool into the 50s.

The front will be nearly stationary over central Illinois through
Wednesday, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies through then.
A weak upper disturbance will work into the Upper Midwest states and
glide across the front tonight, sparking a few isolated showers
north of a Macomb to Bloomington line. By midweek, the front will
start it`s slow exit out of the area as surface high pressure
settles into the upper Great Lakes Region. Temperatures through
the remainder of the week will be seasonally warm with daytime
highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Surface ridging will nudge east of here by Friday as a strong upper
low lifts into the north-central CONUS this weekend. A cold front
will approach from the west late Friday night, with better moisture
advecting northward out ahead of it. Showers and thunderstorms will
be common with FROPA and also pose a conditional threat for severe
storms Saturday afternoon or evening. Exact timing of the front
still remains unclear with the GFS favoring a faster passage as
opposed to the slower ECMWF. Timing of the front will largely drive
the threat for severe weather, with a slower passage resulting in
more time for instability to build. 0-6 km wind shear is expected to
be over 50 kts, which would be more than enough to sustain storm
organization. Rainfall amounts look to be beneficial, though should
only be a small step toward easing ongoing drought conditions. The
NBM probabilities still show about a 50-60% chance for 0.5" or more
of rainfall areawide, with higher end amounts looking to be focused
south of I-70 where there is a 30-40% chance of 1" or more.

Temperatures cool back near seasonal normals behind the weekend
system, with highs on both Sunday and Monday looking to peak in the
60s to near 70 degrees. Additional chances for rain look possible by
the middle parts of next week as the upper pattern remains more
progressive.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An ill defined and slow moving frontal boundary has resulted in
numerous clouds around FL050 to FL070 early this morning. Though
there are a few breaks which could theoretically allow patchy fog
formation from roughly 09-13z/4-8am CDT, HREF and NBM each
suggest chances for MVFR (or lower) visibilities is less than 10%
and so confidence was too low to justify a mention in the TAFs.
Winds will remain light (less than 8-10 kt) and somewhat shifty,
especially this morning, but the direction will be some variation
of northeasterly through 06z/1am CDT Wednesday.


Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$