289
FXUS63 KILX 221121
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
521 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain is likely (greater than 80% chance) Monday
  evening into Tuesday morning. Current forecast guidance
  suggests amounts will generally range between 0.25"-0.5".

- A sharp cold front will push across the area on Wednesday with
  temperatures slipping into the 20s, with a 50-60% chance of
  apparent temperatures being below 20 degrees according to the
  LREF, by Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Dry weather settles in for the weekend. High pressure sets up over
the region today. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 50s,
with lows ranging in the 30s.

The next chance for rain comes Monday as a new frontal system pushes
through Illinois. It looks as though the area with the greatest
thunderstorm chances remain further south (out of our CWA), but
showers are looking likely (80-90% chance). Forecast soundings have
little to no CAPE of any sort for the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
The LREF is showing a 30-50% chance of 1/4 inch of rainfall from
Monday 18z to Tuesday 18z. The NBM is showing a 50-60% chance for
the same amount over the same time period.

After Tuesday afternoon, drier weather sets up for the remainder of
the week. However, the cold front associated with the low bringing
precipitation to central IL is expected to move through Tuesday
night, which will bring in a burst of winter-like temperatures just
in time for the holiday weekend. Highs on Tuesday warm to upper 50s
to mid 60s. Behind the front, Highs for the rest of the week only
reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. The big drama maker is the bitterly
cold lows beginning Thursday morning.

Lows for Thursday morning through Saturday morning are in the low to
mid 20s. Potentially Thursday morning (Thanksgiving) will be the
most frigid -- with a 50-60% chance of apparent temperatures being
below 20 degrees according to the LREF.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period. Winds are
light, no more than 5-10 knots all day. Initially, winds are
variable but will shift from west-southwest to more northerly by
the end of the period. Very patchy fog is out there this morning,
but it shouldn`t drop visibility too drastically or for very
long.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$