534
FXUS63 KILX 240504
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
  normals through most of next week, with only modest cooling
  toward late week.

- Tranquil weather will continue for several more days, with the
  only meaningful chance of rain toward the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Omega block pattern remains in place over the CONUS late this
week, with an upper level high pressure ridge across the
central U.S. bookended by lows over southwest Montana and off
the Canadian Maritimes. Some flattening/leaning of the ridge
will take place this weekend as low pressure moves across the
Canadian prairies, but the only real consequence for our area will
be some higher level clouds at times. Temperatures will
continue a large diurnal spread, from mid-upper 40s at night to
mid- upper 70s during the day. Most high temperature records
across the region should be just out of reach, but a few may be
approached over west central Illinois.

As we get into the work week, the ridge will very gradually
slide off to the east, with little change in temperatures. It
will take until mid week before we finally see some change in
the pattern. Tuesday morning, synoptic models are in good
agreement with a broad trough over the Pacific Northwest,
pushing toward the northern Plains on Wednesday. At that point,
the guidance begins to differ. The GFS solution becomes
slower/weaker as a low develops over southwest British Columbia,
which would result in lighter rain chances toward Thursday and
a rebuilding of the ridge late in the week. The European
solution deepens a trough over central parts of Canada/U.S. and
a quick shot of showers Wednesday night, slowly moving the
trough through the Great Lakes late week.

Temperatures become more uncertain late in the week, with NBM
box-and-whiskers plots showing temperature spreads of 15 to 20
degrees in the 25-75th percentiles (both highs and lows). While
the European ensembles do trend toward below normal temperatures
late next week, a non-trivial number retain above normal
tendencies into the Halloween weekend. GFS ensembles are more
solidly in the warmer trend, as would be expected with ridging
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

High pressure ridging will keep VFR conditions in place through the
TAF period. Winds will be light, generally out of the south-
southeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Geelhart
DISCUSSION...Geelhart
AVIATION...NMA