176
FXUS63 KILX 241724
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less is
  ongoing this morning across most of central and southeastern IL
  Illinois. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10am.

- There is a greater than 90% chance for rain this evening into
  tomorrow morning. QPF is less than 0.5 inches, with the highest
  (0.5 inch) in the southeast and the least (< 0.1 inch) in the
  northwest.

- Winds gusting 30-40 mph Wednesday will usher in much cooler
  temperatures to end the week with widespread lows in the lower
  to mid 20s Thursday morning with the wind chill in the teens.

- A wintry system looks to target central and southeastern IL this
  weekend. There is a 30-50% chance of 2 inches of snowfall from
  Saturday morning to Sunday morning, north of I-70. Continue to
  check updated forecasts, especially if you have any travel
  plans for the weekend following Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Dense fog and very low stratus is affecting the majority of central
and southeastern IL this morning. Visibilities are generally less
than 1 mile at ob sites. There is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect
through 10am this morning. As the fog erodes this morning, rain will
begin to push into central IL by 19z (1pm) as a low pressure system
pushes in from the west. This won`t be a super soaker of a system.
QPF is less than 0.5 inches, with the highest (0.5 inch) in the
southeast and the least (< 0.1 inch) in the northwest. Precipitation
should be mostly out of the area by Tuesday morning. There could be
some lingering light showers around into the afternoon, but majority
of locations will be dry after the morning.

The arctic cold front will follow Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning, dragging in strong winds on Wednesday and a bitterly cold
snap for Thanksgiving. Winds could gust as high at 35-40 knots
during the day Wednesday as the strong pressure gradient moves
through with the front. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Wednesday, highs only get up to the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Lows each morning from Thursday to Saturday are in the upper teens
to mid 20s. Thursday morning (Thanksgiving) and Friday morning will
be the most frigid. There is a 50-70% chance of apparent
temperatures being below 15 degrees north of a Havana to Paris line,
according to the LREF, for Thanksgiving morning.

We are continuing to monitor trends in the models for a low system
that could bring varied precipitation to central Illinois Friday
night into Sunday. We are still 5 days out, so determining any
definite details in precipitation type and timing is too uncertain.
However, it does look like the system will start as snow and
transition to rain, with the potential for some freezing rain during
the transition. The LREF is showing a 30-50% chance of 2 inches of
snowfall from Sat 06z to Sun 06z north of I-70. Continue to check
updated forecasts to see how the system this weekend will play out,
especially if you have any travel plans for the weekend following
Thanksgiving.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Poor flight conditions will persist through this TAF cycle as a
slow-moving frontal system keeps low stratus, patchy fog,
scattered showers and periods of drizzle in the forecast through
Tuesday morning.

Despite some improvement notated in our 18z TAFs, there is a
reasonably high probability (40-70% chance) that ceilings stay in
the IFR category through 00z across all terminals, with LIFR
ceiling probabilities increasing beyond that time.

In terms of visibility, confidence is high (80-100% chance) that
VFR will return across the board this afternoon. Visibility then
steadily diminishes toward IFR beyond 00z, and then toward LIFR
between 06-12z as drizzle becomes more widespread.

Surface winds will exhibit a light southerly component, shifting
westerly by late in this TAF cycle.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$