355
FXUS63 KILX 031106
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
506 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west to NW winds by late morning and afternoon combined
  with afternoon relative humidity values of 25-35% in central IL
  may lead to increase risk of fire spread mainly north of I-74
  where winds are higher and RHs are lower. Breezier southerly
  winds expected Tuesday combined with minimum relative humidity
  values 30-40% from Lincoln northeast may lead to increase risk
  of fire spread mainly north of I-72.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this work week, with
  highs in the 60s to near 70, warmest readings expected Wednesday.

- The next chance of rain showers is Thursday night into Friday
  (30-60%) as a cold front moves through the region. Rainfall
  amounts are unlikely to exceed a half inch, and just a 15-30%
  chance of more than a quarter inch of rain mainly near the
  Indiana border and from I-74 northeast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A semi-zonal mid/upper level flow over the Midwest through mid
week to generally bring a pleasant stretch of late fall weather to
central and southeast IL with dry conditions to continue through
Thu along with above normal temperatures through Friday.

A cold front over central WI and southeast Iowa into nw MO at
08Z/3 am will push through central IL during mid/late morning and
through southeast IL early this afternoon and near the Ohio river
by sunset. Limited lift and low level moisture with this
weakening cold front, so should sweep through dry with passing
mid level cloud bands over mainly ne CWA into mid morning. SW
winds will turn west to NW and increase to breezy levels by late
morning/midday as cold front passes through central IL. Wind gusts
of 15-25 mph expected late morning and afternoon in central IL,
though not as strong in southeast IL. Minimum RH values lower to
around 25% in northern CWA and 40-45% in southeast IL. The drier
air and gusty winds over northern CWA could increase risk of fire
spread, with the stronger winds expected in northern IL. Despite a
cold frontal passage today, highs are actually milder than
yesterday reaching the lower 60s over much of CWA. West to WNW
winds to diminish under 10 mph after sunset and become light
during the evening. Mid/high clouds to increase from the west
during tonight, mainly overnight. Lows tonight in the mid to upper
30s.

Low pressure system over the Northern Rockies to to have surface
low track eastward to near the SD/MN/Iowa border by sunset Tue
while pulling a warm front ne across central/se IL during Tue
afternoon. Will see some passing clouds overnight and Tue morning,
then decreasing clouds (trending mostly sunny skies) during Tue
afternoon after warm frontal passage. Warm front to pass through
dry as well due to limited moisture. Milder highs in mid to upper
60s Tue with west central IL near 70F from Macomb to Springfield
west. We should see stronger southerly winds develop late Tue
morning and Tue afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph. HREF has a 55-85%
chance of wind gusts over 35 mph by early Tue afternoon east of
the IL river and north of I-70. Dewpoints of 25-30F as dawn Tue to
increase into the 40s by late Tue afternoon with stronger
southerly flow. But northeast CWA (I-74 ne) may see minimum RHs of
30-35% for a time before higher dewpoint air arrives and
increased fire spread risk. Fortunately most corn and soybean
fields in central IL have been harvested by early November.

The "Hot Dry Windy Index" (HDWI), which utilizes the GEFS, shows
most ensemble members with values between 50-100 (above the 75th
percentile) over WI and northern IL (I-80 and north) today. The
HDWI values increase further southward into central IL on
Tuesday, with 50-100 (above 75th percentile) from I-72 north on
Tue, with highest values in west central IL and indicative of
increasing fire weather concerns. The conclusion of most harvest
activities should help limit the field fire potential. It may be
best to avoid burning yard waste this afternoon and Tuesday.

Rather breezy sw winds during Tue night ahead of approaching cold
front moving se into nw IL by dawn Wed, to keep milder lows in the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Low pressure tracks quickly eastward into
northern lower MI early Wed morning and deepens into southeast
Ontario Province during Wed afternoon. It pulls a cold front
southeast through central IL during mid/late Wed morning, and
through southeast IL during Wed afternoon. Breezy SW winds turn
west to NW with gusts 20-25 mph after cold frontal passage, which
also passes through dry and still seeing a fair amount of sunshine
Wed. CAA is delayed behind Weds cold frontal passage, with highs
ranging from mid 60s from Macomb to Peoria nw to upper 60s/lower
70s rest of CWA, with warmest readings south of I-72.

A northern stream storm system off the Pacific Northwest to track
into the Northern Plains Thu and pass northeast of the Great Lakes
on Friday, while pulling a cold front into central IL by dawn
Friday. Clouds to increase over central IL during Thu ahead of
this storm system (mostly sunny skies in southeast IL on Thu yet)
with breezy SSE to SE winds and highs in the low to mid 60s (upper
60s to near 70degF just sw of CWA). Models agree with dry
conditions over CWA through early Thu evening, then increasing
chances of showers from nw to se during Thu night. Best chance of
showers shift into eastern/se IL on Friday and have isolated
thunderstorms possible in southeast IL on Friday. Rainfall amounts
appear light due to fast movement of cold front, with a tenth to
quarter inch. NBM has a 15-30% chance of more than a quarter inch
of rain mainly near the Indiana border and from I-74 northeast Thu
night/Friday. One more mild day expected Friday with highs in the
60s over central IL and near 70degF in southeast IL.

Extended models strong another stronger trof digging into the
Midwest on Saturday with next storm system bringing next chance of
showers Sat afternoon/Sat night and possibly lingering in
eastern/ne IL Sunday morning. The heavier qpf appears to develop
east of IL this weekend while strong mid/upper level trof into IL
by Sunday to bring colder temperatures this weekend. highs Sat in
the mid to upper 50s, and mid to upper 40s Sunday and Monday
(lower 50s Sunday in southeast IL). Another widespread freeze
possible Sunday night.

07

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

A weak cold front will push across central Illinois late this
morning. No precip is expected with frontal passage and only some
mid and high clouds are expected. Southwest winds ahead of the
front will turn northwesterly in its wake. High pressure building
across the region this evening and overnight will allow winds to
become light and variable.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$