273
FXUS63 KILX 210802
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
202 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog will persist this morning. A Dense Fog
  Advisory is in effect until 15z (9am) this morning.

- Rain is spreading north this morning, with the highest rainfall
  totals expected to be south of a Shelby to Edgar county line. An
  additional 3/4 inch of rain could be seen through today.

- A sharp cold front will push through by the middle of next week,
  sending overnight temperatures into the 20s by Thursday morning.
  There is a 40-60% chance that wind chills will be less than 20
  degrees based off the LREF probabilities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

As the rain slowly moves into southeastern IL tonight, the current
focus is the dense fog. Eventually, this morning, the rain will
spread north into central and southeastern IL as the warm front
drifts northward, which will help erode the fog. Until then, there
is widespread dense fog across central IL ongoing. There is a Dense
Fog Advisory in effect until 15z this morning.

Once the rain spreads in, areas along and south of I-70 could see up
to another 3/4 inch through the day today. The rain will linger most
of the day. It will begin to fade out/exit the area late this
evening between 00z and 06z.

After this rain system, a high pressure system settles in over the
region. The weekend will be dry and slightly warmer. The next chance
for rain moves in with the new work week. A frontal complex will
push out of the Southern Plains bringing increased moisture into the
forecast area. From 12z Monday to 12z Tuesday, the NBM is showing a
40-50% chance of half an inch of rain south of a Springfield to
Paris line.

Temperatures will generally warm through the weekend. Highs by
Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the upper
40s to low 50s. A strong, albeit dry, cold front will move
through Tuesday night into Wednesday drastically changing the
weather pattern. Highs going into Thanksgiving shift to the mid
30s to low 40s and lows in the 20s. Wind chills could dip down
into the teens. Thanksgiving morning there is 40-60% chance that
wind chills will be less than 20 degrees based off the LREF
probabilities.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

IFR conditions will persist across the area overnight. The latest
guidance suggests ceilings will climb back to MVFR at KPIA by
late morning/early afternoon then further south to the I-72 sites
by late afternoon/early evening. Visibilities at most terminals
are below 1 mile late tonight, with little improvement until rain
spreads northward later this morning. Winds will be light through
tonight, becoming northeasterly with speeds around 10 kt or less
during the daytime hours.

Barnes/NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ031-
036>038-040>057-061.

&&

$$