006
FXUS63 KILX 290700
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
200 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This holiday weekend will be lovely, albeit cooler than normal,
  for one last gasp at summertime adventures. Highs in the upper
  70s to low 80s this afternoon and overnight temperatures in the
  mid to upper 50s are forecast.

- A cold front next week could usher in cooler temperatures
  briefly. There is a 30% chance that highs get above 70 degrees
  Thursday.

- There is ~30% chance of showers Wednesday into Thursday next
  week associated with the cold frontal passage. Severe weather is
  not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

This holiday weekend will be lovely, albeit cooler than normal, for
one last gasp at summertime adventures. Dry conditions linger into
early next week. Surface high pressure hangs over the region until a
cold front pushes through Wednesday, which will break this pattern
of quiet weather, but will potentially usher in even cooler air.

Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s
are expected to continue through midweek next week. Behind the cold
front on Wednesday, there is a signal for highs to only get up into
the upper 60s and lows in the 40s, starting Thursday. The NBM is
showing a max of a 30% chance that highs get above 70 degrees
Thursday. The LREF is thinking the same with a 20-40% chance of
highs getting above 70 degrees. Looking at the long range models,
temperatures appear to rebound by the following weekend.

Another aspect of this cold front next week is the probability of
showers and thunderstorms. It is still too far out to say for
certain where they will develop and if they will be severe. As of
this forecast, none of the machine learning models are showing ANY
hint that there will be severe weather with the passage Wednesday.
The Euro and GFS show some hint at showers across the CWA Wednesday.
The current forecast shows ~30% chance of showers Wednesday into
Thursday.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

As a cold front continues to press southward across central IL
overnight, winds will become ENE across the area, and continue
4-8 kts through the period. A few clouds around 5000 ft AGL will
continue, and coverage will increase during the afternoon hours,
however VFR conditions will continue.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$