921
FXUS63 KILX 191055
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
555 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this
  morning, then again later this afternoon into the overnight
  hours. Damaging winds, heavy rain, and localized flooding is
  in play today.

- A persistent northwest flow will keep temperatures and
  humidity levels in check the next several days, with highs in
  the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Today will be a brief return to the active weather. The CAMs are
showing a narrow band of showers and/or thunderstorms setting up in
a west-east orientation across central IL, potentially where the
flooding and heavy rain occurred last week. Timing looks to be mid
afternoon for this band (20z Weds to 06z Thu). WPC has introduced a
slight risk ERO for today for all of ILX CWA. PWATs won`t be as high
as they were last week, but forecast soundings are suggesting 1.7-
2.0 inch values in place. Those same soundings have a long, skinny
CAPE profile. LPMM shows pockets of 2-5 inches locally in the
vicinity of the band. A Flood Watch will be in effect from 18z today
to 06z tonight for the northern half of the CWA.

Along with that narrow band, there could be a convective complex
that moves south of I-72, with the greatest severe risk in southern
IL. There is some uncertainty on if the complex will reach as far
north as I-72. The HRRR (00z) is the most bullish, with the complex
riding along and south of I-72 from 00z-08z this evening/overnight.
The 00z NAMNest is the opposite, depicting a much drier, less active
solution. The 00z RRFS agrees on the west-east oriented line setting
up in central IL but has the later complex missing the CWA off to
the south in southern IL. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather
in place for areas along and south of I-74 for the activity later
today with damaging winds as the main threat.

Thursday is looking to be dry and quite pleasant. Then, additional
chances for rain return Friday into Saturday. A dry start to the new
week as a high pressure develops over the Great Lakes region Sunday.
Most people will likely remain dry or see minimal rainfall amounts
after today for the extended forecast. Pleasant August temperatures
are in store for the next week, with upper 70s to 80s for highs and
60s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

There is some showers passing to the south of DEC and SPI right
now but will move out quickly. The next wave is progged for
this afternoon and evening and looks to be more focused over the
central IL terminals. Kept PROB30 TSRA mention for all sites as
coverage and location is still low-medium confidence, but if
current trends hold TEMPO and predominant groups will be added
later. Otherwise, a BKN MVFR stratocu deck looks to develop over
the area this morning, lifting to VFR during early to mid
afternoon. Light and variable winds return behind the convection
tonight for tomorrow morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late tonight
for ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-048-053.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple/25