771
FXUS63 KILX 021645
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return this week. There is currently a high
  (70-90%) chance Wednesday afternoon/evening, and then a low
  (20-30%) chance Friday morning/afternoon. Severe weather is not
  anticipated at this time.

- Unusually cool temperatures arrive by Thursday with afternoon
  highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Today will be pleasant with highs in the low 80s. The pattern is set
to change come Wednesday night. A cold front will slosh through
during the day on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, highs are expected
to still reach low to mid 80s as breezy, southerly winds boost WAA.
Along the front, there are chances (70-90%) for showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder. The instability is looking quite weak and
moisture return limited, potentially limiting the thunderstorm
potential. No severe weather is expected. Rain accumulations look to
be fairly light, with QPF only 0.1-0.5 inches and PWATs around 1.2-
1.4.

Behind the front, temperatures will become cooler. Recent trends in
the models are depicting a slightly "warmer" outcome. Instead of
morning temperatures on Thursday and Friday being in the low to mid
40s, they are now looking to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs
Thursday are forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday, some models are showing a warm nose pushing north into the
CWA ahead of a secondary cold front, bumping daytime temperatures
into the upper 70s south of I-72. We are watching for the potential
for more showers associated with the passage for Friday. There is a
20-30% chance south of I-70 Friday night. Beyond Friday, there is no
clear sign of any impactful rain in the near term, but temperatures
will be back to unseasonably cool levels (slightly below normal) for
the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF period as skies stay
mostly clear beneath a ridge of high pressure. Surface winds will
remain light and somewhat variable today, increasing and veering
southwest Wednesday morning ahead of an impending cold front.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$